Johnny Hates Jazz

A Conservative/SNP Pact in Westminster is no Longer a Fantasy
Iain Dale 9:39 PM

Alex Salmond is fast developing a reputation as a political colossus. North of the border he's single-handedly masterminded the defeat of the Labour Party and rubbed their noses into the dirt. The Scottish Labour Party is in turmoil. They have a leader whose popularity (if that's the right word) is 75 points behind Alex Salmond, and after nearly a year in power, the SNP is becoming more popular by the month. Yesterday's MRUK Cello poll for the Scottish Sunday Times showed the SNP with a healthy 8 point lead over Labour and six points up on the previous poll. If the Scottish elections were re-run now the SNP would be on 57 seats and Labour on 44.

The SNP has now extracted from the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times (the one showing the Tories 16 points ahead) data which shows that for a Westminster election the SNP is 7 points ahead of Labour and 19 points up on the 2005 General Election. This would give them 27 seats and give Labour a heart attack. It would also mean that the SNP become key players in a hung Parliament, giving the Conservatives a second option for coalition partners.

This would have been unthinkable even a year ago, yet in Scotland there is a growing respect between the SNP and the Conservatives, and this is being reflected in Westminster too. There is growing friendly banter between leading Tories and the SNP's small but perfectly formed band of Westminster MPs.

The SNP no longer regards the Tories as the devil incarnate, but any formal coalition is currently still an impossibility under the SNP constitution, I believe. Certain elements of the SNP believe this to be outdated, but a formal move to amend the constitution would be highly unlikely.

So what short term implications does all this have? Firstly, Labour will make no headway north of the border unless the hapless Wendy Alexander is ditched. Secondly, Gordon Brown's refusal to 'do business' with Alex Salmond is playing right into the SNP's hands. They have become the voice of sweet reason, while Brown looks bitter and twisted. No change there then.

If there were shares in Alex Salmond you'd be buying them now. As a Labour MP said to me today: "There's only one way to stop Alec Salmond in his tracks and that's assassination". He was joking. I think.
Labels: Alex Salmond, SNP

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cassie

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If the Labour Government had any sense(!!!???), it would have squeezed the funding going to North Britain and made Salmond choose between cutting services or using Holyrood's tax raising powers. It would be interesting to see how much Scots continued to relish independence after having been given a cold douse of the financial reality!

Let's face it: Labour hasn't retained popularity amongst Scotland's voters despite having continued to dole out cash! Time the Barnett Formula was re-visited, methinks.




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Smidgey

I don't think they would be a useful ally in Westminster to anyone, for the main fact that the SNP never vote on issues that don't effect Scotland.

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Smidgey

To be honest, I think it would make the call for separation louder.

Believe me, there are those in Scotland who believe that the subsidies run the opposite way and they treat the UK in the same way that we on this board treat the EU.

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cassie

No doubt, but the question is which is the majority view? I believe that you are referring to a minority opinion.


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Smidgey

Perhaps, but either way I don't really care, so long as the welfare state - particularly in the West coast (surprise - the Labour heartlands) - ends in Scotland so that all these people can stop being subsidy junkies.

I think the majority view is probably that Scotland gets a fair share, but I could be wrong. This was my main reason for thinking that a change in how Scotland is funded might increase pro-independence sentiment. I have yet to actually meet a person in Scotland who says that it is getting too much money, but of course my personal experience may be slanted - since it is a personal one.

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How vain is man, who boasts in fight the valour of gigantic might!

-Georg Friedrich Händel

British-Conservatism

The Scottish Tories dallied with fiscal autonomy for Scotland last year I think it was.
That could be the price of a good deal with the SNP.

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mattyr2k8

the fact the conservatives only take up 1 scottish westminster seat might be why they are co-operating with the SNP.