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Old 03-03-2008, 09:45 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Default UKIP, English Democrats, proportional vote, MORI, Mayoral, Assembly, 2008

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Originally Posted by cassie View Post
....I would suggest that this is a very good reason for entering the lists! If a party cannot achieve some national prominence from this particular 'local election', where can it?
The problem is that if UKIP and the English Democrats (both of whom who share the same anti-EU and pro-England views) do not run a joint campaign for the list (proportional) vote in the 2008 London Assembly elections the result could be 3% for the English Democrats and 3% for UKIP (as the latest MORI London poll suggests will happen as regards the London Mayoral election): meaning neither of the two parties gets that 5% or 6% needed to win a single seat.

As I wrote earlier, if the two parties combined to run a joint campaign they would stand a very good chance of getting at least 5% or 6% of the vote and, consequently, a seat on the London Assembly.

We need an anti-EU voice on the London Assembly - and to achieve this, we have to avoid splitting the anti-EU and pro-England vote.

There is just still enough time for the English Democrats and UKIP to agree to work together in the London Assembly elections - but I am not hopeful that a joint campaign involving the two parties for the 2008 London Assembly election of 1.5.2008 will be agreed this time.
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Old 04-03-2008, 04:20 PM   #12 (permalink)
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It's difficult to negotiate when there are no communication roots open.

UKIP are sitting pretty with an income of £1,000,000 per year from the European Union - why would they want to talk to the English Democrats ?

UKIP will probably try to negotiate once it's too late.

English Democrats are a growing/rising party

UKIP is a deminishing/declining party

"Crunch" point is 1 May
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:16 PM   #13 (permalink)
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BNP above EDP for first vote but BNP below EDP for second vote?
Slightly confusing Poll by the look of it.

But hey, if you feel that you will beat the BNP then fair play to ya.

BUT I stil say things will be as usual on voting day, with the BNP grabbing most of the nationalist vote maybe getting one or even two candidates in, too many foriegners in Londonistan will not let the BNP go any further than that I suppose,
with UKIP and EDP down near the bottom of the pile of votes.

Mind you, I suppose the best move here condidate wise, would be to have an Asian stand for you, and you should do well in Londonistan.
Though obviously it would be nonsense and not nationalistic for a nationalist party to even contimplate standing an Asian candidate.


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Latest Mori poll is showing that both UKIP & English Democrats are featured above the BNP

Considering the Matt O'Connor - English Democrats Campaign has only really got moving on 1 March 2008, with yet an official launch this is most encouraging to the English Democrats.

Ipsos MORI: The London Mayor Election

This is the first time the English Democrats have ever features in a MORI Poll
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:22 PM   #14 (permalink)
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That sounds about right and fair enough, as people have been so oppressed and targeted and insanely tarred as racists??? for simply supporting their own indigenous ethnic people,
and so this leaves many still in that position of not letting on that they will vote BNP, due to not wanting the nonsense aimned at them etc etc
This is where the term 'the silent majorety' comes from.

What a sad state of affairs we have come to with this situation.

I feel the silent majorety will show up on the day and an half decent vote will come for the BNP.

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The reality is that people are wary about telling pollsters that they will vote for the BNP. I would be astonished if the ED's poll better than the BNP and I feel that the BNP are certain to win one seat and may even get a second.
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Old 04-03-2008, 08:24 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Default UKIP, English Democrats, candidates, UK EU constituencies, election, London, alliance

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UKIP - why would they want to talk to the English Democrats ? UKIP will probably try to negotiate once it's too late.
I would hope that UKIP would see, even at this late stage, that they will have a much greater chance of winning a seat on the London Assembly on 1.5.2008 by running a joint election campaign with the English Democrats.

For instance - if the English Democrats backed the UKIP list of candidates for the London Assembly proportional vote, UKIP could in return offer top place on one of its lists of candidates in one of the UK EU constituencies in next year's EU Election to an English Democrat (who, if elected could speak for both parties and sit in the UKIP group in the rival 'Parliament' in Brussels).

But, as I have written before, I do not think that there is much chance that UKIP will form a cooperation agreement with the English Democrats before this May's London poll and I assume that the English Democrats have not formally approached UKIP to offer one.

If no cooperation agreement can be reached before the 2008 London election campaign begins, I hope that both parties will look at my suggestion that they possibly form some sort of alliance (as and where they can agree) long before next year's EU Election.

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Old 05-03-2008, 12:11 AM   #16 (permalink)
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As I've said on another thread, I don't see any of the civic nationalist parties attaining 5% of the vote: there are at least three (UKIP, EngDems and One London) fishing in that pool.

The BNP will probably win one seat: it fell only a little short of the 5% required so to do in 2004, since when it has won a clutch of council seats, mainly in Barking & Dagenham. It has a sufficiently different product from the others to garner the support of one in twenty of those who turn out to vote, which is not an ambitious target.

BNP supporters will have cause for real celebration if their party takes two (let alone three) seats on the GLA, but I doubt that will happen.
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Old 05-03-2008, 12:17 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Adrian Davies View Post
As I've said on another thread, I don't see any of the civic nationalist parties attaining 5% of the vote: there are at least three (UKIP, EngDems and One London) fishing in that pool.

The BNP will probably win one seat: it fell only a little short of the 5% required so to do in 2004, since when it has won a clutch of council seats, mainly in Barking & Dagenham. It has a sufficiently different product from the others to garner the support of one in twenty of those who turn out to vote, which is not an ambitious target.

BNP supporters will have cause for real celebration if their party takes two (let alone three) seats on the GLA, but I doubt that will happen.
What practical conclusion do you draw from that, pray?


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Old 05-03-2008, 03:12 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Default English Democrats, One London, UKIP, proportional, list, London Mayor, Assembly

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I don't see any of the civic nationalist parties attaining 5% of the vote: there are at least three (UKIP, EngDems and One London) fishing in that pool.
Thank you for your reply, Adrian.

I have called on the forum many times for the English Democrats, UKIP and One London to agree on a joint campaign for the London Mayor/Assembly election on 1.5.2008 to reduce the possibility of vote-splitting.

UKIP need about 6% of the vote to get a proportional (list) seat on the Assembly - it will be disappointing if they just miss winning a seat because part of the anti-EU votes went to anti-EU One London instead.

All three parties should try to work together in some form of limited or full alliance and all win then benefit electorally.
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Old 05-03-2008, 04:21 AM   #19 (permalink)
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What practical conclusion do you draw from that, pray?
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The obvious conclusion is that the inability of the civic nationalists to compose their differences even though electoral expediency massively predicates a pragmatic alliance bodes ill for them on 1st May.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:13 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
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The obvious conclusion is that the inability of the civic nationalists to compose their differences even though electoral expediency massively predicates a pragmatic alliance bodes ill for them on 1st May.
May I remind you that I did specify 'practical conclusion'.


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