Johnny Hates Jazz

Support for Scottish independence grows - Telegraph

By Kate Devlin, Scottish Political Correspondent




Support for Scottish independence has increased, with four in 10 Scots saying they would back it, a poll has found.

The findings will boost plans by Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland, to hold a referendum on separating Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom by 2010.

In recent years, polls have suggested that support for independence was running at about a third of Scottish voters.

The minority Scottish National Party administration has also admitted that it faces a battle to get a Bill on an independence referendum though a mainly unionist Scottish parliament.

However, support for separation has risen to 40 per cent in the past three months, according to the survey by TNS System Three, carried out in late November and early December. The figure is an increase of five per cent since the last time the poll was run in August.

It also shows that 44 per cent of people did not want to leave the Union, down from 50 per cent three months ago.

More men support independence than women, with 47 per cent backing separation. The disintegration of the United Kingdom was backed by 34 per cent of women, but 44 per cent were against.

The majority of 18- to 24-year-olds who back independence stands at 47 per cent, while 32 per cent do not.

That figure was even higher among people in the 25-34 age bracket. Of those, 53 per cent support separation.

Older people were more sceptical. Only 30 per cent of respondents aged 65 and over wanted the SNP to negotiate independence, while 57 per cent were against the proposition.

When they came to power earlier this year, the SNP claimed that

their performance in government would increase demands for independence.

The poll asked the same question that Mr Salmond planned to ask in a referendum - whether his administration should "negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state".

Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister, said that the findings showed a clear trend. "This is the strongest level of polling support for independence in almost a year - showing major progress since the last poll - reflecting the impressive ratings of the SNP in government."

Miss Sturgeon added: "The trend is very clear, and shows that people are moving to the independence position as they see the success and credibility of the SNP in government. The National Conversation is leading the constitutional debate, and pulling the other parties in its wake."

Opposition parties claimed that the poll was skewed because it did not offer any other option.

A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: "This poll does not show the real extent of Scottish opinion. Surveys that have offered a range of options all reveal that support for breaking up the United Kingdom run at or below a third. The SNP do not represent the views of most people in Scotland."

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Britannist

If europhile Salmond (leader of the obsessively pro-EU Scottish so-called 'National' Party) held a referendum on Scotland quitting the UK in 2010 he would lose it - and lose it heavily.

Opinion polls showed that the pro-independence movement in Quebec in Canada would win the referendum there on whether Quebec should remain a part of Canada or not.

However, when it came to the actual vote - people in Quebec voted to stay as a part of Canada. Not just once - but in two referendums (in which the opinion polls had projected a win for the losing pro-independence side just before both referendums).

However - what is clear from the Telegraph poll (quoted in the first posting to this thread) is that if support in Scotland for Scotland quitting the UK is above 40% at the moment, Labour and the europhile Liberal Dims who brought in devolution in 1999 only have themselves to blame.

Labour and the pro-EU Liberal Dims foolishly claimed in the years before 1999 (when the Scottish Parliament was set up) that their devolution would sharply reduce support in Scotland for Scotland leaving the UK. As I forecast back then - devolution in Scotland would not reduce support in Scotland for Scotland quitting the UK. And devolution has not lessened the number of those in Scotland who claim that they want Scotland out of the UK.

Besoeker

Which also means that six in ten didn't.

steve fowler

So in other words Salmonds still has a long time before he will ever get his answer what pitty.

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RULE BRITANNIA BRITANNIA RULES THE WAVES, BRITONS NEVER EVER SHALL BE SLAVE'S.

Never give in - never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honor and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.
Winston Churchill.

When Labour won the 1997 General Election, Enoch Powell told his wife that the electorate had voted to break up the United Kingdom.

Hartlepool

The Scottish borders are more likely to want the Union if my gut feelings from regular visiting is right.

Anyway,we'll see soon enough,let's hope it's all done democratically and not blighted like here in England as election fraud is quite rampant IMHO.

Hartlepool

I honestly believe that the "next day counting of votes"is the main cheating tool these days.This idea is recent and so is the vote fraud.

Britannist

And, if it came to a vote, I think that between 7 and 8 out of every ten Scottish voters in Scotland would vote to maintain the Union of Scotland with Northern Ireland, Wales and England.

Smidgey

If support for separation did increase, my guess is that it would have nothing to do with any 'positive' measures taken by Salmond, but more of a reaction to things such as the comments made by Kelvin Mackenzie. Negative reactions don't last long anyway.

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How vain is man, who boasts in fight the valour of gigantic might!

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Northumbrian

That's an interesting comparison, though I'm not sure what it proves. For example, opinion polls showed a slight majority of Montenegrins wanted independence form Serbia, and when it came to the vote Montenegro seceded with a majority in favour of more than 55%.

I would also venture Montenegro had more common with Serbia, than Scotland has with England.

Britannist

An interesting posting, Northumbrian.

Yes, just because Quebec has (so far) voted not to quit Canada does not mean that Scotland would follow that example (of voting to support the status quo) in any referendum in Scotland on whether Scotland should remain a part of the UK.

However, mostly French-speaking Quebec has now twice voted to stay with mostly English-speaking Canada. One would hope that English-speaking Scotland would vote to stay a part of the English-speaking UK.

The problem for Unionists (me included) is that the subject of Scottish 'independence' (unlike Quebec/Canada) has the EU 'angle' to it - with the europhile Scottish so-called 'National' Party (SNP) offering the people of Scotland the bogus option of "the alternative to the UK of a great future for Scotland in europe".

What the obsessively pro-EU SNP is claiming about a wonderful future for an 'independent' Scotland in the EU is, of course, total nonsense - the SNP would turn Scotland into an EU-controlled statelet with no currency of its own and no real say at all on any of its domestic matters.

I am confident that the more we anti-EU Unionists get the message across to the voters of Scotland that the europhile SNP 'independence (from the UK) campaign' is just an attempt to dismember the UK and to submerge Scotland into an EU Superstate where it would all but disappear from view as a nation - the less electors in Scotland would/will be likely to back quitting the UK in any referendum on the issue.