Why the BNP Isn't Standing in Crewe

Vortex · 08-05-2008, 10:58 AM

First of all this is an unofficial response to several queries elsewhere on the forum as to why the BNP isn't standing in the Crewe by-election.

The constituency of Crewe is it's fair to say fairly new ground for the BNP as it is for UKIP and the EDP. So what are the benefits of fighting this by-election? Firstly there will be a considerable amount of media coverage especially as there is the hope of a Tory gain here in what is normally strong Labour territory. There will be the added opportunity of gleaning new support and new members by leafleting and other camapigning means. There is also the chance of reaping a number of disillusioned voters who would wish to register a protest at an incompetent prime minister and an increasingly unpopular government. However the downsides also need close scrutiny. In a close contest like the one that will take place in Crewe any opposition vote will be squeezed as it was in the London Mayoral Election. Disenchanted voters, despite possibly symphathising with one of the minor parties, will return to their traditional base to ensure that that either Labour is defeated or in the case of Labour supporters that their party is spared another disaster.

Many of those voting Tory and indeed Labour will be sympathethic to both the anti-EU movement and the desire to see English patriotism reassert itself after forty years of incessant PC propoganda, but the perceived view will be to either hurt the government or demonstrate your loyalty to it.

Now we all know on this forum that Blue Labour is nearly as bad as New Labour, but voters in general will not have our campaigning zeal or committment to our respective causes. That is why outside the big two (and this includes the LibDems) none of the other candidates can do well.

There is also the question of resources, so soon after the expenditure in London and elsewhere. History shows that UKIP is probably the best funded minor political party in Britain, but even where it stands a high profile candidate in one of its best areas like Bromley, throwing £70K at the campaign in the process, it polled just 8% of the vote. What can it expect in Crewe? In my view it will have performed minor miracles to save its deposit, but I predict a vote of around 2.5%. UKIP will have the consolation of beating the EDP who will poll half that. The Greens will probably poll about the same as UKIP. the others will be also rans.

So the BNP could have entered the fray, but its admittedly smaller financial resources (despite having far more activists) means it would have felt the squeeze much more and polled an insignificant amount of votes in real terms, giving the massed anti-BNP ranks the chance to say the BNP have been marginalised in an attempt to undo the gains that were made on May 1st.

I have tried to be genuinely analytical in this post, despite as most of you will know being a BNP member.

Finally it would be churlish not to wish the UKIP candidate the best of luck in the contest.

mkpdavies · 08-05-2008, 11:25 AM

The Libertarian Party almost ran a candiate at this, but thankfully common sense kicked in.

Anthony Butcher · 08-05-2008, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mkpdavies

The Libertarian Party almost ran a candiate at this, but thankfully common sense kicked in.

Too early?

mkpdavies · 08-05-2008, 12:57 PM

What's the point standing in an area where you haven't done ANY ground work before? While I wouldn't want a New Party situation of never getting off the ground, I certainly wouldn't want the first result to be a total humiliation.

I would like to see some targets picked and then work on those targets for a year or two, before throwing hats into the ring. Then add to the targets as you go along.

I don't think my way will be the way it works out for long though, as I know there are a lot of people champing at the bit.

The Libertarian Party really is out there for the long game. I don't expect any miracles any time soon, but just hope the seed planted help future generations.

Anthony Butcher · 08-05-2008, 01:05 PM

You will have to get stuck in at some point, and I don't think that there is anything particularly humiliating about a brand new party doing badly. It is entirely expected.

blueblood1920 · 08-05-2008, 01:28 PM

If the election was a couple of weeks later the BNP may of stood a candidate, but due to the speed of it being called it means activists around the country wont be able to take days off work. I would of liked to have seen the BNP stand, but I understand its probably best that we didnt stand.

My support will be going to the Monster Raving Loonies!

arden forester · 08-05-2008, 01:57 PM

So, vortex, the BNP was worried by being in a similar situation as the SDP was when the Raving Loonies beat Owen's rump!

arden forester · 08-05-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueblood1920

If the election was a couple of weeks later the BNP may of stood a candidate, but due to the speed of it being called it means activists around the country wont be able to take days off work. I would of liked to have seen the BNP stand, but I understand its probably best that we didnt stand.

My support will be going to the Monster Raving Loonies!

As a sort of second preference?

Vortex · 08-05-2008, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arden forester

So, vortex, the BNP was worried by being in a similar situation as the SDP was when the Raving Loonies beat Owen's rump!

Please don't bring Dr Owen's backside into the equation Arden, even though he made an **** of himself! Max Mosley wasn't the MRLP candidate by any chance was he?

No seriously, there were no worries about finishing behind any joke candidates, but there was concern over resources and activist availability combined with a rational assessment of a classic two party squeeze behind this carefully made decision.

Like they say at the end of the Bond movies, the BNP will return!

22ANDUK · 08-05-2008, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortex

First of all this is an unofficial response to several queries elsewhere on the forum as to why the BNP isn't standing in the Crewe by-election.

The constituency of Crewe is it's fair to say fairly new ground for the BNP as it is for UKIP and the EDP. So what are the benefits of fighting this by-election?

'Ang aboot,

The BNP has always claimed to be strong in Crewe?

FULL RESULTS OF BOROUGH ELECTIONS FOR CREWE & NANTWICH 1ST MAY 2003
BNP to fight for Crewe South ward
The BNP and UKIP in the 2004 Elections:

It could also be down to the BNP losing a lot of support in the North West over the last few years!

08-05-2008, 10:58 AM	#1 (permalink)
Vortex Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 801 Party: BNP	Why the BNP Isn't Standing in Crewe First of all this is an unofficial response to several queries elsewhere on the forum as to why the BNP isn't standing in the Crewe by-election. The constituency of Crewe is it's fair to say fairly new ground for the BNP as it is for UKIP and the EDP. So what are the benefits of fighting this by-election? Firstly there will be a considerable amount of media coverage especially as there is the hope of a Tory gain here in what is normally strong Labour territory. There will be the added opportunity of gleaning new support and new members by leafleting and other camapigning means. There is also the chance of reaping a number of disillusioned voters who would wish to register a protest at an incompetent prime minister and an increasingly unpopular government. However the downsides also need close scrutiny. In a close contest like the one that will take place in Crewe any opposition vote will be squeezed as it was in the London Mayoral Election. Disenchanted voters, despite possibly symphathising with one of the minor parties, will return to their traditional base to ensure that that either Labour is defeated or in the case of Labour supporters that their party is spared another disaster. Many of those voting Tory and indeed Labour will be sympathethic to both the anti-EU movement and the desire to see English patriotism reassert itself after forty years of incessant PC propoganda, but the perceived view will be to either hurt the government or demonstrate your loyalty to it. Now we all know on this forum that Blue Labour is nearly as bad as New Labour, but voters in general will not have our campaigning zeal or committment to our respective causes. That is why outside the big two (and this includes the LibDems) none of the other candidates can do well. There is also the question of resources, so soon after the expenditure in London and elsewhere. History shows that UKIP is probably the best funded minor political party in Britain, but even where it stands a high profile candidate in one of its best areas like Bromley, throwing £70K at the campaign in the process, it polled just 8% of the vote. What can it expect in Crewe? In my view it will have performed minor miracles to save its deposit, but I predict a vote of around 2.5%. UKIP will have the consolation of beating the EDP who will poll half that. The Greens will probably poll about the same as UKIP. the others will be also rans. So the BNP could have entered the fray, but its admittedly smaller financial resources (despite having far more activists) means it would have felt the squeeze much more and polled an insignificant amount of votes in real terms, giving the massed anti-BNP ranks the chance to say the BNP have been marginalised in an attempt to undo the gains that were made on May 1st. I have tried to be genuinely analytical in this post, despite as most of you will know being a BNP member. Finally it would be churlish not to wish the UKIP candidate the best of luck in the contest.

08-05-2008, 11:25 AM	#2 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	The Libertarian Party almost ran a candiate at this, but thankfully common sense kicked in. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

08-05-2008, 12:57 PM	#4 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	What's the point standing in an area where you haven't done ANY ground work before? While I wouldn't want a New Party situation of never getting off the ground, I certainly wouldn't want the first result to be a total humiliation. I would like to see some targets picked and then work on those targets for a year or two, before throwing hats into the ring. Then add to the targets as you go along. I don't think my way will be the way it works out for long though, as I know there are a lot of people champing at the bit. The Libertarian Party really is out there for the long game. I don't expect any miracles any time soon, but just hope the seed planted help future generations. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

08-05-2008, 01:05 PM	#5 (permalink)
Anthony Butcher Administrator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Long Ashton, Bristol Posts: 9,729 Party: None	You will have to get stuck in at some point, and I don't think that there is anything particularly humiliating about a brand new party doing badly. It is entirely expected. __________________ If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled! Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

08-05-2008, 01:57 PM	#7 (permalink)
arden forester Uber Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: Solihull, in The Forest of Arden, Warwickshire! Posts: 2,651 Party: None	So, vortex, the BNP was worried by being in a similar situation as the SDP was when the Raving Loonies beat Owen's rump! __________________ www.westminster-whispers.blogspot.com

08-05-2008, 01:28 PM	#6 (permalink)
blueblood1920 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,070 Party: BNP	If the election was a couple of weeks later the BNP may of stood a candidate, but due to the speed of it being called it means activists around the country wont be able to take days off work. I would of liked to have seen the BNP stand, but I understand its probably best that we didnt stand. My support will be going to the Monster Raving Loonies!

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