Britannist

Support for the Cameron-Conservatives is down according to a new opinion poll published in the Independent newspaper on 29.1.2008. The opinion poll was carried out by ComRes for the Independent before the news of Conservative MP Derek Conway having the Whip withdrawn and before the news of Conservative MP Nigel Waterson being arrested.

The Cameron-Conservatives now only have a 1% lead over Labour in the crucial C2 voting category (the group of 'floating' voters sometimes called 'white van driver' who are said to determine the outcome in the 250 most marginal constituencies in the UK). ComRes says that 36% of C2 voters would back the Cameron-Conservatives with 35% opting for Labour.

The europhile Liberal Dims have only secured a 1% increase in their projected national support according to the poll - despite having just chosen a new leader of their party who they hoped would boost their profile and increase the number of people backing them. The Liberal Dims are now only 1% of the combined support of all other small parties.

ComRes poll for the Independent of 29.1.2008 - voting intentions:

Conservatives 38% -3%
Labour 30% (non change on last ComRes poll)
Liberal Dims 17% +1%
Others 16%

According to ComRes, Labour are now only ahead 1% ahed of the Conservatives in Scotland - and even there Labour remains behind the europhile Scottish so-called 'National' Party.

Labour are ahead in the 25 - 44 year old age group with the Conservatives are ahead in the 18 - 24 age group. The Cameron-Conservatives are also ahead in the over 65 age category, the new opinion poll reveals.

The opinion poll puts combined support for small parties at 16% - the highest level of support for that group for many months. According to the ComRes opinion poll figures getting on towards one in every six voters in the UK now supports one of the small parties (such as UKIP, the Greens, the Respect Party, the Northern Ireland parties or the Scottish/Welsh so-called 'Nationalists') or independent candidates.

rjt

Below 40% still for Mr Cameron, this must be disapointing for him given the level of incompetance this government is exhibiting.

The others figure is very encouraging, it is vital the next parliament is more representative of the whole range of public opinon than this current one. I think these figures support your argument for smaller partys targeting seats very well.

__________________
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eublues

Only shows 1% for UKIP however.

Britannist

Thank you for your agreement on this, RJT.

I am pleased that the europhile Liberal Dims do not seem to be getting a boost from picking a new leader. Let us hope that it stays that way.

Labour, Conservative and others in the House of Commons will be pleased that the Liberal Dims (LD) have not moved up much in the latest opinion poll.

I wonder what former LD leader Sir Menzies Campbell thinks about this? I have not forgotten that elements in his party did not appear to treat him well. Perhaps the words going through the mind of Sir Menzies at this time are "told you so."

Britannist

Not good for the party, obviously. But UKIP was on a 1% share of the projected vote in opinion polls many times in the period 1999 to 2004 - but still managed to get almost 16% of the national vote in the last EU Election held on 10.6.2004.

The UKIP profile will rise in the campaign for the coming London Mayoral/Assembly elections and it will rise even more so next year when the party puts party election broadcasts on television; places full page advertisements in best-selling newspapers and when it leaflets every home in the land.