Cameron now most unpopular party leader new poll says as Tory vote reduces

Britannist · 19-09-2007, 02:20 AM

David Cameron, the pro-EU and anti-UKIP leader of the Conservative Party, is now more unpopular than the other party leaders according to a new opinion from ICM published in today’s Guardian.

Brief edited extracts from the Guardian: “The poll was largely carried out after news of the Northern Rock crisis broke, which might have been expected to harm (Labour Prime Minister) Mr. Brown. Instead it offers bad news across the board for the Conservatives. Cameron is in trouble with Conservative voters – he has a net positive rating of only 25% with them. Cameron was seen as an asset to his party – this appears to be changing. Mr. Cameron's efforts to reposition his party do not appear to have widened its pool of potential support. Public satisfaction with Mr. Cameron's leadership has slipped while the party has lost its advantage on major policy issues including crime, the environment and taxation.”

Key points from the ICM poll: Vote shares: Labour 40% (up 1%). Conservatives 32% (down 2%). Liberal Dims 20% (up 2%). Personal ratings (all voters): Brown + 32% (55% approve, 23% do not approve). Cameron + 8% (37% approve, 45% do not approve). Campbell (Lib Dim Party leader) - 2% (39% approve, 41% do not approve).

ICM say that if the above voting intentions were repeated at a General Election Labour would actually increase its majority in the House of Commons with 380 Labour MPs elected.

At 32%, the Cameron-Conservatives are on a lower share of the vote in the ICM poll than they got at the last General Election or when Iain Duncan-Smith was leader of the party (2001 - 2003).

Figures quoted above from:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libde...172188,00.html

ANGLO-STAFFS · 19-09-2007, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Britannist

David Cameron, the pro-EU and anti-UKIP leader of the Conservative Party, is now more unpopular than the other party leaders according to a new opinion from ICM published in today’s Guardian.

Key points from the ICM poll: Vote shares: Labour 40% (up 1%). Conservatives 32% (down 2%). Liberal Dims 20% (up 2%). Personal ratings (all voters): Brown + 32% (55% approve, 23% do not approve). Cameron + 8% (37% approve, 45% do not approve). Campbell (Lib Dim Party leader) - 2% (39% approve, 41% do not approve).

ICM say that if the above voting intentions were repeated at a General Election Labour would actually increase its majority in the House of Commons with 380 Labour MPs elected.

At 32%, the Cameron-Conservatives are on a lower share of the vote in the ICM poll than they got at the last General Election or when Iain Duncan-Smith was leader of the party (2001 - 2003).

Figures quoted above from:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libde...172188,00.html

If this trend continues could this be bad news for UKIP? Traditionaly the Tories, and their supporters, have been seen as the least EU minded of the big three. These polls point to the two strongest EU supporting parties gaining while the Cam-Cons are falling.

kernow · 19-09-2007, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ANGLO-STAFFS

If this trend continues could this be bad news for UKIP? .

Not really. Tory supporters will turn somewhere hopefully to UKIP if the Tory party collapses. Real Tories would never vote Labour and only the Tory "Wets", e.g Clarke, Heseltine, Howe and Herd and other Tories of their ilk would vote Lib Dem. UKIP are the only right of centre party they realistically could go to. The actual Tory MPs are a different kettle of fish! Being career politicians they will go for whatever party offers them the best chance of continuing to feather their nest!

ANGLO-STAFFS · 19-09-2007, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kernow

Not really. Tory supporters will turn somewhere hopefully to UKIP if the Tory party collapses. Real Tories would never vote Labour and only the Tory "Wets", e.g Clarke, Heseltine, Howe and Herd and other Tories of their ilk would vote Lib Dem. UKIP are the only right of centre party they realistically could go to. The actual Tory MPs are a different kettle of fish! Being career politicians they will go for whatever party offers them the best chance of continuing to feather their nest!

In which case it will be good for the UKIP but very bad for the anti-EU couse. I doubt if there will be enough support moving from the tories to UKIP to elect shed loads of UKIP MP's. It will mean that the tory vote will be spread about allowing the Pro-EU parties to increase their hold on Westminster.

Rock and hard place spring to mind

kernow · 19-09-2007, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ANGLO-STAFFS

In which case it will be good for the UKIP but very bad for the anti-EU couse. I doubt if there will be enough support moving from the tories to UKIP to elect shed loads of UKIP MP's. It will mean that the tory vote will be spread about allowing the Pro-EU parties to increase their hold on Westminster.

I don't understand what you mean by "good for UKIP, bad for the anti EU cause" UKIP are the senior anti EU party. Cameron has already stated that he wants Britain to remain in the EU and Brown and Ming aren't exactly gagging to get us out!

rjt · 19-09-2007, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ANGLO-STAFFS

In which case it will be good for the UKIP but very bad for the anti-EU couse. I doubt if there will be enough support moving from the tories to UKIP to elect shed loads of UKIP MP's. It will mean that the tory vote will be spread about allowing the Pro-EU parties to increase their hold on Westminster.

Rock and hard place spring to mind

That is exactly what will happen, when Labour split in the 1980s and the SDP was formed it simply made it easier for Mrs Thatcher to win.

eublues · 19-09-2007, 11:22 AM

I've no time for Cameron, but how can the public possibly think that Brown has any merits.

rjt · 19-09-2007, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eublues

I've no time for Cameron, but how can the public possibly think that Brown has any merits.

Brown is boring and after 10 years of false grins I think people are in the mood for soemthing a bit dour.

ANGLO-STAFFS · 19-09-2007, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kernow

I don't understand what you mean by "good for UKIP, bad for the anti EU cause" UKIP are the senior anti EU party. Cameron has already stated that he wants Britain to remain in the EU and Brown and Ming aren't exactly gagging to get us out!

I mean that if UKIP get 50-100,000 extra votes and maybe a couple of MP's. It will not make a snowball in hells difference to the EU. If the Tory vote collapses then, (IMHO), it will be because lots of Tory voters stay at home. If UKIP supporters expect battalions of disaffected Tories to march into the polling stations and vote UKIP then I think there will be a few tears on the Friday morning. If the Cam-Con's go into meltdown then Lab and the Lib-Dems will prosper. They will then, quite rightly, be able to claim that they have a mandate to do whatever they like vis-a-vis Europe. As for UKIP really benefiting, it aint gonner appen.

Phil Sheldon · 19-09-2007, 01:28 PM

As for UKIP really benefiting, it aint gonner appen.

That depends on how effectively NF marshalls all available resources and puts a bomb under the backside of Whoever-is-in charge-of-publicity.

IMHO the SNP should serve as a model of how to fight for,and win,power.

19-09-2007, 02:20 AM	#1 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Cameron now most unpopular party leader new poll says as Tory vote reduces David Cameron, the pro-EU and anti-UKIP leader of the Conservative Party, is now more unpopular than the other party leaders according to a new opinion from ICM published in today’s Guardian. Brief edited extracts from the Guardian: “The poll was largely carried out after news of the Northern Rock crisis broke, which might have been expected to harm (Labour Prime Minister) Mr. Brown. Instead it offers bad news across the board for the Conservatives. Cameron is in trouble with Conservative voters – he has a net positive rating of only 25% with them. Cameron was seen as an asset to his party – this appears to be changing. Mr. Cameron's efforts to reposition his party do not appear to have widened its pool of potential support. Public satisfaction with Mr. Cameron's leadership has slipped while the party has lost its advantage on major policy issues including crime, the environment and taxation.” Key points from the ICM poll: Vote shares: Labour 40% (up 1%). Conservatives 32% (down 2%). Liberal Dims 20% (up 2%). Personal ratings (all voters): Brown + 32% (55% approve, 23% do not approve). Cameron + 8% (37% approve, 45% do not approve). Campbell (Lib Dim Party leader) - 2% (39% approve, 41% do not approve). ICM say that if the above voting intentions were repeated at a General Election Labour would actually increase its majority in the House of Commons with 380 Labour MPs elected. At 32%, the Cameron-Conservatives are on a lower share of the vote in the ICM poll than they got at the last General Election or when Iain Duncan-Smith was leader of the party (2001 - 2003). Figures quoted above from: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libde...172188,00.html

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19-09-2007, 11:22 AM	#7 (permalink)
eublues Uber Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 3,014	I've no time for Cameron, but how can the public possibly think that Brown has any merits.

19-09-2007, 01:28 PM	#10 (permalink)
Phil Sheldon Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 587	As for UKIP really benefiting, it aint gonner appen. That depends on how effectively NF marshalls all available resources and puts a bomb under the backside of Whoever-is-in charge-of-publicity. IMHO the SNP should serve as a model of how to fight for,and win,power.