Britannist

Support for the pro-EU Cameron Conservatives has fallen with their lead over Labour of 13% last month dropping to 5% now - a new ICM poll on projected voting intentions for the next General Election for today's Guardian newspaper reveals. The europhile Liberal 'Democrats' have also support over the last month says ICM - despite that party having picked a new leader only a few months ago who they had hoped might give them a boost. ICM says they are down 2% on last month :

ICM poll result for the Guardian 22.4.2008 -

Conservatives 39% (down 3%)
Labour 34% (up 5%)
Liberal Dims 19% (down 2%)
Others 9% (up 1%)

If the above voting figures were repeated at the next General Election no party would have an overall majority in the Commons. Labour and the Conservatives would have 290 seats each (the way the Labour vote is spread gives that party a chance of winning the same number of constituencies in a General Election as the Conservatives even if Labour gets less votes than the Conservatives overall). According to ICM, Labour are now about 2% below the share of the vote they got at the last General Election.

ICM also reports that less people support David Cameron than do support the party he leads. 37% backed him in the new ICM poll - 2% less than the number who claim they intend to vote Conservative at the next General Election.

"The surge in support for the Tories after the budget has not been sustained - the ICM poll figures in the new poll are now as they were in the ICM poll last December" today's Guardian states.

BBC political correspondent Michael Crick said on Newsnight last night "The Guardian/ICM poll lead (in the Guardian of 22.4.2008) is in line with other polls published over the last week - the local elections may not be the wipe out for Labour that some predict." Mr. Crick added "If 'Ken' Livingstone (Labour candidate for the 2008 London Mayoral election) were to pull that one off (i.e. if he won the London Mayoral election on 1.5.2008) it would do something to restore Labour's fortunes."

The increase in support in the ICM poll published today will be welcome news for Labour - they face a battle in the Crewe-Nantwich constituency in a By-Election to be held following the sad loss of Mrs. Gwyneth Dunwoody MP.

More on the new ICM poll in today's Guardian at:

Cameron's lead cut in latest ICM poll | Politics | The Guardian

]London Mayoral Election 2008 candidates: Richard Barnbrook - British National Party, Gerard Batten - UK Independence Party, Siân Berry - Green Party, Alan Craig - Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party , Lindsey German - Left List, Boris Johnson - Conservative Party, Ken Livingstone - The Labour Party, Winston McKenzie - Independent, Matt O'Connor - English Democrats, Brian Paddick - Liberal Democrats.

Full details of the London Mayoral and Assembly candidates for the 1.5.2008 London Elections at:]

London Elects - The candidates

and in posting number three at:

UKIP Gerard Batten London mayor Election Broadcast

Britannist

I notice that the above projected votes shares (Conservatives 39%; Labour 34%; Liberal Dims 19% and Others 9%) add up to 101% .

Britannist

The title of this thread should be:

"Tory opinion poll lead down from 13% to 5% - support for Cameron below that of his party."

Mikeuk

The great British moronocracy is beginning to see sense. New Labour is appalling but does anybody really want to see a return to the obscenity of Tory government with 15% mortgage rates, 3 million unemployed and all the rest of the Tory shambles.

I hope Cameron shat himself when he read that poll.

Britannist

The Labour majority of 7078 at Crewe-Nantwich would be vulnerable if the Conservatives did have a 13% lead as a Sunday Times opinion poll last week claimed.

But if the Conservative national opinion poll lead is now 5% then - and taking into account 'regional' opinion poll result variations (i.e. the fact that political analysts say the Cameron-Conservatives are very unpopular north of the Trent) - then Labour might retain Crewe-Nantwich (boosting Labour morale and rallying the party).

I think it is a long time since the Conservatives have won a Parliamentary By-Election from Labour.

Britannist

The pro-EU Cameron-Conservatives need an electoral swing of just over 8% to win Crewe-Nantwich at the next General Election (perhaps slightly less on new constituency boundaries).

Today's ICM poll in the Guardian puts Cameron-Conservative support at 39% - 6% up on that party's actual national vote share at the last General Election.

Perhaps not quite enough, if the poll in today's Guardian is correct, for the Cameron-Conservatives to take Crewe-Nantwich at the By-Election.

UKIP and other small parties did not contest Crewe-Nantwich last time but I would expect UKIP to put up a candidate in the Crewe-Nantwich By-Election. In what is likely to be a very close result when the By-Election vote is held, the influence of UKIP in the contest could be the deciding factor on who takes the seat.

The result at Crewe-Nantwich at the last General Election in May 2005 (please click on the following link and see the result listed on the top right of screen):

Not updated: UK General Election results: May 2005