Hunter

Not denying this. But I'd be willing to bet the major Parties are gearing up for a real contest come the next GE....if we have one.

The past ten years have seen NuLabour destroy the infrastructure of this country to such an extent that even people who have never voted before are stating they will now. Add to this the obvious lies and corruption from the other Parties and you have a scenario that will allow the fringe Parties, if they play it right, to make gains into Parliament.

UKIP will have less of a chance because the average voter doesn't know who they are. The Greens, BNP, even the new ED and others will attract those disgusted with the main Parties.

So yes, a BIG jump, but one that is definately attainable.

Populist Lee

This is not impossible.

I await eagerly the next Election bringing some nasty shocks to the mainstreamers.

I bet you can't wait, either.

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The Guvnah

And they should be told in no uncertain terms to do one!

Suthers

Hmm, saying now that the BNP have even a chance of getting an MP is highly dubious, assuming Brown tries to hang on for as long as possible and only calls an election in autumn 2009 or 2010 so much can have changed politically by then that making predictions now is nigh on impossible. Even in their hot spots of Barking and D if they won it would be a miracle for them, changing demographics, concerted campaigns against them etc

In addition to this the fact that the current rift in the BNP has run so deep and that they have like it or not lost an awfully high amount good activists, if they patch this up then maybe they will be on course to do something exceptional, but this may not happen fully unless either collet/Hannan are thrown out for good or griffin steps down/loses a leadership election since the former are a huge liability and the latter rapidly becoming seen as something of a despot...

Alot hinges i think upon this current court case, if they had had unity this election i don't doubt they could have put up at least another 200-250 candidates and done considerably better than they will do. for as much as they appear to be gaining ground, they are in limbo atm if not regressing in places, i cite oldham, burnley and bradford...only 2 , 9 and 8 candidates respectively, none in wigan at all.

Only expect advances in eastern england and london.

back to mps, their main targets are i assume, new constituency barking and rainham? bradford south, stoke central, sandwell...but all of these apart from london have regressed in the last year, unless they pick up their game expect a handful of 2nds but thats all.

Dissident Congress

The small parties had better arm themselves with tridents because they will have to make a three pronged attack in 2009. It is likely that the Euro, general, and local elections will take place on the same day or within a very short space of time between them.

blueblood1920

The split hasnt really affected their best areas such as Stoke, London and Epping. However the split is more or less forgottten about now and those that left are having secon thoughts thats if they havent already come back on board after seeing through the state assets.

However you are right on one thing is that the main fight for them in B&D is that of demographics, however the new boundary changes apperntly now made it better for the party to win a seat. I wouldnt worry too much about the left as they are falling apart themselves.

Suthers

Is it forgotten about though? from what i hear the court case begins on Thursday and potentially could be very damaging to all concerned, both financially and in regards to respect. The loss of Graham, single etc is a huge blow since they were at the forefront of breaking new ground, especially graham in Broxtowe and Amber Valley. Plus loads of members and councillors have temporarily left due to it. It's the continual alienation of people like this that will hold the party back, and the retention of people like collet. do you really think that issues with collet wont emerge again in the future?

>Stoke BNP are only contesting 10 wards of 20, and have lost a senior activist to independent i believe
>Epping has 21 wards up, yet they are only contesting 12 seats, for an area with 6 councillors they should by now have established enough support to do full slate by now? considering southend and basildon which have no councillors can?
> and bradford, only 8 candidates up and numerous splinter groups?
> Oldham only has 2 candidates up? nick griffin got 16% of the vote here in 2001, granted on the back of riots but still, where have those 6,000 votes gone? nowhere.
> Burnley is going the same way as oldham, they won 53% of the vote in keighley ward in 2003/4? , now they arent even standing there, whats that about?

I dont think one needs to worry about the left so much, just the fact that the party seems to be losing its key activists and falling back spectacularly in previously highly successful areas. Fortunately for the BNP the general public arent aware of this internal squablle so much, but this doesnt mean that in due course the party wont lose out alot.

The BNP can continue to blow hot air and trash UKIP, but at the end of the day they are no better, they may have had some minor success but they are doing nowhere near as well as they should be doing considering how hated labour is, and how disenchanted many conservatives are, they could be rivalling the lib-dems, yet they are holding themselves back.

TannyD

First step vote for ukip, failing that the last resort would have to be bnp.

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blueblood1920

The outcome of the court case will be interesting, but hard to speculate on what will happen. Graham was a good activist yes, but the party or that area do not rely on her. She was a very very stupid girl by getting in with that crowd and unjustly going for collett, she fell for the trap set by searchlight/state. Actually not that many people left, also consider the fact that their list was false with lots of names who didnt want to be on that list. What councillors have joined them?

We do not know the plans in Stoke or Epping, however just because they arent standing a full slate doesnt mean they cant. They may have decided to just stand in wards they want to target, although I dont agree with that policy and will always push for a full slate.

Bradford granted seems to be the only place seriously affected by this 'rebellion' but I cant see it lasting too long there as it will probably fall apart.

Oldham has had problems for a while locally, nothing to do with these recent problems.
Burnley has managed to stand 11 candidates by the looks of things which isnt too bad and we do not know what their plans are either, they may not stand in a number of wards because of demographics.

BNP are repeatedly beating UKIP in by-elections and are averaging about 17% in all them contested which is considerably higher than UKIP who are a bigger, well funded party with MEP's and no strong movement who campaigns against them. You cant really compare the two parties since they both have different factors which put them in the positions they are. UKIP's main problem is lack of vision, policy and organisational skills.

Suthers

Granted the party is always bigger than the single person, that much too griffin must remember. and the election results and lack of full slates etc speak for themselves, however i still cant understand why you would defend collet, who she went for 'unjustly' even after firstly he embarrassed the party in the young, nazi and proud programme and secondly obviously caused issues resulting in Spence's actions against him? i cant see why anyone in the party would defend him, and accusations of a searchlight trap? what? if anything surely it is collet who you should be accusing here, its not like its lies when it is a) on video with his full knowledge of it being made into a tv broadcast and b) when its widespread knowledge that he aggravated spence into assaulting him. If Graham is fed up with him, as are alot of people it seems, then why would her attack on him be unjust if she simply cares about party image and doesnt want a complete liability in the lime-light.

As for the bnp beating UKIP, these days that is to be fair not exactly a great feet, its a big progression for the BNP to usurp UKIP's position but not something to boast about. If the BNP were better organised they should have been able this year to field 800+ candidates, that would have been impressive since yes there is quality not quantity, but size speaks.