Britannist

ITV 1 has reported in its 10.30 pm news bulletin this evening that the Conservatives now have their largest lead over Labour for two decades - according to an opinion poll to be published tomorrow morning. BBC 2 Television Newsnight has also just given details of the new poll.

"If the voting pattern in the poll were repeated at the next General Election, the Conservatives would have an overall majority of 64" reporter Michael Crick told Newsnight viewers.

The last time the Conservatives had such a big lead in an opinion poll was 1988, when Mrs. (now Lady) Thatcher was Conservative Prime Minister. However, Labour have fallen to a 27% national vote share (the figure given as Labour's current level of support in the new opinion poll) before - at the 1983 General Election. An election in which they managed to win more constituencies in the House of Commons than the Cameron-Conservatives have now.

Details of the poll:

Pollster: ComRes
For: The Independent newspaper
Date poll conducted: 23rd - 25th November 2007
Poll size: 1014 people

Voting intentions:

Conservative 40%
Labour 27%
Liberal Dims 18%
'Others' 14%

Britannist adds: The poll is significant not because the Conservatives have reached a 40% share (they have done this before recently - indeed, the last poll put them slighly above 40%) - but because of the wide gap between the Conservatives and Labour.

Due to the way constituency boundaries are drawn, Labour could still win the next General Election even if their national vote share is 3% less than that of the Conservatives.

The above poll, for the europhile and pro-Liberal Dim party Independent newspaper, also shows an increase in support for the Liberal Dims to 18% (the last poll said the Dim Libs had a projected national vote share of 14%). Labour are now only 9% ahead of the europhile Liberal Dims, ComRes (who carried out the poll for the Independent) claim.

Support for 'others' (i.e. other parties being a category including UKIP, the Northern Ireland parties and the Greens) is also up, according to the new poll.

The ComRes poll was conducted before it was announced that the General Secretary of the Labour Party had quit this evening (see separate threads in the British Politics and Labour Party sections of the forum for further details on that resignation please).

rjt

I caught this poll this morning and it is intresting on two points.

1) As you say the significance of the gap is very important

2) It was taken before the general Secretary quit, I should think tht will make things worse.

I gather the PM has a monthly press conference this morning, I hope he feels and looks uncomftable and is given a rough time.

I think we also need to look at consituency boundaries, it cannot be right that a party could hold power if 3% behind in the popular vote.

__________________
Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

Smidgey

Bye bye Labour!

My father is a big fan of Gordon Brown, I will be rubbing this in his face.

Although, the alternative isn't much better...

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How vain is man, who boasts in fight the valour of gigantic might!

-Georg Friedrich Händel

kernow

But only if they call an election! They can continue to shaft this Country for a long time yet!

rjt

The Thought of nearly 3 more years of being shafted by Gordon Brown is enough to make anyone sucidial I would have thought.

__________________
Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

Britannist

Yes - but they (Brown's Lie-bour Party) cannot escape the big London elections: the campaigns for which will formally begin in just over four months.

If the slump in Labour support (as detailed in the new opinion poll referred to in the first posting to this thread) continues through to next May, we anti-EU people should stand a reasonable chance of defeating the unpleasant europhile Labour Mayor of London 'Ken' Fibingstone.

Seeing him booted out of office would be the best thing to happen in British politics since UKIP won 12 seats at the last EU Election.

Britannist

I want them out as much as you do, Smidgey - but the opponents of Mrs. (now Lady) Thatcher used to say in the 1980's "Bye Bye Maggie" in the years before both the 1983 and 1987 General elections. She won both of those of course (with big majorities) and the Major-Conseratives held on back in 1992 with a working majority in the Commons despite most opinion polls (and an enthusiastic BBC) forecasting their political demise at the polls.

Labour will have to work hard to hold on to their overall majority at the next General Election but it is a fact (and I don't like it) that they could do it with some effort.

"It ain't over 'till it's over" as they say.

Britannist

He always seems to look uncomfortable these days, in my view.

At this point in time, he must be thinking that the job is not going quite as well as he thought it would .

Britannist

He might not have nearly three more years in power.

As I wrote elsewhere on the forum a few days ago - if his slump in the opinion polls looks as if it could be semi-permanent (or permanent) he may yet face a leadership challenge before the next General Election.

Pro-euro Brown has gloated at all the Conservative and Liberal Dim Party leadership contests in recent years - I wonder how he would feel if he suddenly found he was being forced into one himself.

Britannist

Yes, should the Conservatives get back with a majority of their own at the next General Election, one of their key priorities must be to activate a full and proper constituency boundary review.

Electoral boundaries being favourable to Labour is nothing new - Callaghan (the former Labour Prime Minister who lost to Conservative Mrs. Thatcher in 1979) allegedly avoided implementing the recommendations of the Boundary Commission (which would have got rid of small but strongly pro-Labour constituencies) before the 1979 General Election. Had the boundary changes gone through while he was still Prime Minister they would have helped make the Conservative Parliamentary majority in 1979 even larger.

Europhile 'Conservative' John Major is allegedly responsible for not stopping changes to constituency boundaries in the early 1990's which have been beneficial to Labour.