Britannist

An opinion poll to be published in tomorrow’s Times puts Labour ahead on enough support to win the next General Election with 134 more seats in the Commons than the Cameron-led Conservatives.

Populus – who conducted the poll on 30.6.2007 – three days after Blair quit as Prime Minister – gives:

Labour 37%
Conservatives 34%
Liberal Dims 18%
“Others” are on 11%.

Compared to the March 2007 Populus poll, the Conservatives are down 4% and Labour up 4% (no change for the Liberal Dims).

The poll is bad news for pro-EU and anti-UKIP David Cameron because not only does it give Labour a winning lead after only a few days of Gordon Brown as Labour leader – but it comes from a polling organisation whose polls have not been overly favourable to Labour this year.

BBC 2 Television Newsnight said at 11 pm today that if people vote as the Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times suggests they would (if there were a General Election now) the House of Commons would look like this:

Labour 350 seats
Conservatives 216
Liberal Dims 53
Others 27

In other words, the Conservatives would have had a net gain of about 6 seats in the Commons at the next General Election (based on the latest Populus poll forecast). On new constituency boundaries (but using levels of support at the last General Election) the Conservatives are thought to have, nominally, about 210 seats in the House of Commons.

The following people are among those who have just commented on the new poll at Conservative Home (including criticisms of the Cameron team):

* TFA Tory wrote on Conservative Home on 2.7.2007 at 9.53 pm “This poll is consistent with that of other polling companies. Cameron's poll ratings have slumped since "grammargate". Change2lose?”

* Mark Senior wrote on Conservative Home at 10.18 pm on 2.7.2007 “Populus polls this year have not been particularly favourable to Labour average Labour % 32.5 compared with ICM 32 and Yougov 33 .
It is the Conservatives not LibDems who have lost support as Labour have taken the lead .Changes since March –

Yougov Con -4 Lab +7 LibDem -2
ICM Con -6 Lab +8 LibDem N/C
Populus Con -4 Lab +4 LibDem N/C

The weakening of the Conservatives is a massive boost for the Liberal Dems.”

* TFA Tory wrote on the Conservative Home website at 10.30 pm on 2.7.2007 “A corrupt and incompetent government, now led by the Dour One, is giving the "Heir to Blair" (Cameron) a pasting. If Clegg replaces the Minger, there will be a substantial swing from Con to Liberal 'Democrats'. Cameron is in big trouble and this reshuffle has put a few round pegs in important square holes. Boy Gideon (Shadow Chancellor George Osborne) in charge of the election? What a pathetic joke!”

* Simon Denis wrote on Conservative Home at 10.24 pm on 2.7.2007 (brief edited extract) “Mr. Cameron has to learn that there is all the difference in the world between reaching out to the floating vote and abandoning your convictions. Politics should not be about selling one policy position in order to safeguard another. In the reign of Mr. Cameron, the backroom boys with their clever wheezes and contempt for ordinary political fighting have taken over.”

** BBC 2 Television Newsnight political correspondent Michael Crick said tonight “A new internet poll shows Conservative activists less happy with David Cameron now that any time in the past.”

Mr. Crick also said that if Prime Minister Gordon Brown maintains Labour’s lead in the opinion polls he might just be tempted to call an early General Election later this year.

"The electoral map (the constituency boundaries used for elections to the House of Commons) are unfair to the Conservatives and give Labour a big advantage on small leads" Mr. Crick also pointed out.

arden forester

The last point is where the system fails. If Labour got back on these figures, I think there would be constant rumblings.

They could be in on below 20% this time, with again the lowest vote for a winning party. It would be a government "re-elected" on ever decreasing vote shares. Blair looked shifty last time. How could Brown claim a victory when well over four-fifths of the electorate passed over the chance of putting a "X" against a Labour candidate?

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rjt

I think it would be a travesty if this happened and I think it really is likely.

22ANDUK

Less than 20%? Well it still shows default public support. If people were so anti-Labour they would get out and vote in their droves and kick them out.

But once you add up those who support and vote for Labour, swing voters, people who are economically and financially content and people who couldn't care less who was in power than you probably have a default public backing of the government of about 40%.

John Carter

Labour will win the next GE - due to the Tories being useless and all the morons out there who think that because Bliar's gone things will be different.

You heard it here first.