Britannist

Yes - even though you accused me of being so in another thread only a couple of hours or so ago. :shock:

Britannist

TonyG - Research has been carried out by the University of Strathclyde into who votes for the europhile Scottish National Party (SNP) and why. The SNP has always received the votes of some people who are against Scotland leaving the UK and the votes of those people who want to use the SNP to pressurise Westminster for more money/powers but not actually to formally quit the UK.

On your point about the Greens - as I said in my posting about the SNP a little earlier, alot of tactical voting is going on. People who think the SNP has more chance of the SNP winning in their localities than the Greens will vote SNP. It is about as simple as that.

To say that all of the people who vote SNP want Scotland out of the Union of Great Britain is preposterous. Likewise, one has to accept that some who vote Labour in Scotland (a Unionist Party) would vote to take Scotland out of the UK if there were a referendum on the matter.

TonyG

Okay, let's get pedantic again - send me a link to where I called you pedantic, cos I don't remember doing that.

You say that only 21% of the Scottish population supported independence.
You then say that not all those supporting independence voted SNP.
YOu then claim that you can justify saying that 1/3rd of all SNP voters were not in favour of independence.

Marrying those statements up, and allowing for a chunk to be voting Lab, Green or whatever, I would say that your claim is in serious trouble because you would have to be revising that to nearer half of all SNP voters do not agree with independence - and that is ludicrous to say the least!

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Britannist

In fact the word you actually used (in your posting today at 6.23 pm to the thread 'Cameron abandons another principle') was "petulant". Not the best kind of language for a new poster to this forum to use if he wants to win friends here.

:arrow:
http://www.democracyforum.co.uk/view...r=asc&start=10

No it isn't. My claim is only "in trouble" with those who have only a superficial knowledge or understanding of the inner workings of Scottish domestic politics. It has been known for years that Scottish National Party support is made up of tactical votes, protest votes and some Unionist votes (apart, of course, from pro-Independence votes).

The Scottish so-called National Party (SNP) got about a third of the vote in this month's Scottish Parliamentary Election. Support for independence is 21% according to Times/Populus (most recent poll on the subject). So, of the SNP vote, at least a third is a tactical protest vote (against Labour at Westminster and/or against Labour in Scotland) and another proportion of it will be people who fall into the following category:

1. Vote SNP but won't turn out to vote in any 'independence' referendum
2. Vote SNP to get more powers for Scotland but not for outright independence from the rest of the UK in any referendum
3. Vote SNP because they like local SNP candidate but will not vote for independence from the rest of the UK in any referendum

The best example of how people who don't support the SNP aim of taking Scotland out of the UK still sometimes vote SNP is the result in the constituency of Gordon in this month's Scottish Parliamentary Election.

The seat - once Conservative - has been held in recent years by the pro-Union (i.e. Unionist) Liberal 'Democrats'. SNP leader Alex Salmond chose to contest the seat in this year's election for the first time and won the constituency - overturning a fairly large Liberal 'Democrat' majority.

The idea that the people of the Gordon seat want Scotland to leave the UK is absurd (with any other candidate than Salmond, the SNP would have carried on coming third at Gordon). Many Liberal 'Democrat' supporters voted for Salmond because he is a high-profile candidate who will 'put their constituency on the map' and who may be seen to perform well on local matters. They did not vote for him because he wants to break up the UK.

The Gordon result is yet more evidence that alot of people who voted SNP did not do so because of the 'independence' issue. It is hard to say how many of the people who voted SNP in the Scottish Parliamentary Election earlier this month would actually vote for independence from the UK if a referendum were held - but the final number of those who would do so almost certainly would not include the anti-Labour protest voters or those

I have identified above (people voting SNP for local reasons and people who would abstain an 'independence' referendum) - possibly around 40% of those who backed the SNP this month (who would not vote for Scotland to quit the UK).

I support the findings of the University of Strathclyde - the SNP vote is presently a mixture of pro-independence, protest votes and 'personal' votes for individual SNP candidates.

TonyG

Wow! You don't half take offence easily don't you?
Didn't you see the wink at the end of the comment, indicating that I was joking?
Jees, life ain't that serious! :?
As for me having "only a superficial knowledge or understanding of the inner workings of Scottish domestic politics", the point that I was making was quite simple and it is based on mathematics, not assumptions or grafted on statistics.
It also undermines the old mantra that a vote for the SNP is a protest vote for the very simple reason that once a protest vote gets anywhere near putting someone into power whose policies you don't like you run a mile from it!
The message that seems not to have got through is that the SNP are a very serious party, whether you like them or not.
They have gained the votes because they have struck chords with the voters! To try and insinuate otherwise is really missing the point deliberately.

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TonyG

Let me underline that point:
Most people would accept that the BNP pick up protest votes, these days more than anyone.
Do you think that if the BNP threatened to pick up significant numbers of MPs that they would ever have a chance of it happening?
Of course not. The moment they got that far the vote would drop through the floor.
The same would have happened with the SNP. It didn't. Their vote was real and nothing anyone can say will change that.
Of course, there are plenty of people who really really want to believe that the SNP result was a flash in the pan and a freak based on votes they shouldn't have had, but from here on in they will get judged on one of two things:
1. Their performance if they are allowed to do the job properly, or,
2. Their performance as hindered by the other parties.

If they perform well then next time they will do even better.
If they perform badly but only as a result of other parties spoiling it then they will still do better as the images of the others will be tarnished.
If they get their policies enacted and do badly then they will go the same way as all the other failing parties, except they will probably never get another chance to try again.

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Britannist

I just want to make clear, Tony G, that I was not accusing you of having a superficial knowledge of Scottish domestic politics. But some people, undeniably, do have a limited understanding of who votes for political parties in Scotland and why they do so and believe - quite wrongly - that if 34% voted for the Scottish so-called Nationalists (SNP) then 34% of the adult voting population in Scotland must back independence.

I think quite a few people vote SNP knowing full well that that party would have no power - in the Scottish Parliament - to call a legally binding referendum on the future of Scotland in the UK. If the SNP were able to get such constitutional powers in office some voters would not back it.

It's a little bit like Labour voters supporting the party in the north-east of England at General Election time - but wisely voting against what that party wanted in the north-east referendum held there in November 2004 on setting up an elected 'regional' assembly (i.e. a huge number of Labour supporters voting against Labour's proposal to set up an elected 'regional' assembly).

Just as some people vote SNP in a local, national or EU election - but would not follow its advice to vote for Scotland to quit the UK in the event of a referendum being held on the matter.

TonyG

This is the best comparison that I've seen and it highlights some very significant things.
Especially the last question which notes the figure of 22% in favour of independence - it only happens when it is set against the option of having more powers for the Scottish Assembly! In other words, when the Scots want to have their cake and eat it - not having the full responsibility of paying for themselves - then they will take that in preference over going it alone. Who can blame them for that? But it very much undermines your argument though:

Opinion Polls
On 10 September 2006 The Sunday Times Scotland published an opinion poll conducted by YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between 5 September and 7 September 2006. The survey found that 44% were in favour when asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% did not know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.
A Daily Telegraph poll shows that a significant proportion of Britons would accept the breakup of the UK.
On 1 November 2006, The Scotsman published an opinion poll conducted by ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of Scottish independence, with 37% against.
When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by The Times, published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority support (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence. Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence

Johnny Hates Jazz

It's a bit strange that the Scottish Liberal DEMOCRATS would not entertain a referendum in Scotland. :shock:

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TonyG

Oh, come on! Since when were the Liberal Democrats either liberal or democratic?

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