Britannist

The europhile and low-circulation so-called 'Independent' newspaper said yesterday that the Conservatives, with a new leader who has been in a good position to benefit electorally from the Labour Government's difficulties throughout the year (and from problems in the Liberal Dim party) is on an average share of 37% of national support. There is normally a swing back to sitting government's in a General Election as some protest voters 'return to the fold'. Normally the 'swing back' is about 5% - meaning that the Labour Party may get a 38% share at the next General Election (up 5% on now) plus a possible extra 2% to 3% on top if they manage to 'squeeze' the Liberal Dim party. The Conservatives, led by anti-UKIP and pro-EU David Cameron, need (on the new boundaries to be used at the next General Election) to be well ahead of Labour just to win the same number of seats (as Labour).

Critics of David Cameron will say that, in view of Labour's problem, the Conservatives should be doing much better with a new leader and getting a higher share in opinion polls.

From the Independent 4.11.2006 (brief extract):

The weighted average of last month's polls by ICM, MORI, Populus and YouGov puts the Tories on 37 per cent (up one point on the previous month), Labour on 33 per cent (unchanged) and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (down one).

If the figures were repeated at the next general election on the proposed new constituency boundaries, Labour would win 302 seats, the Tories 274, the Liberal Democrats 43 and other parties 21. This would mean a hung parliament in which Labour and the Liberal Democrats could join to forge an overall majority, while the Tories and Liberal Democrats could not.

There's more at:

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/pol...cle1953728.ece

arden forester

The article quoted says - I don't necessarily agree. In some places, Birmingham for instance, LibDems & Tories have got together to keep Labour out. I do think we will get a hung parliament but not as the Independent thinks.

In some seats, MPs could be elected on as little as 25% of the vote if smaller parties put up a strong showing and the votes are spread around.

Incidentally, if UKIP and others want to win seats then the best bet is to concentrate on the 5/10 best seats and work them for all they are worth until the election!

mkpdavies

Labour got together with the Tories to keep the Lib Dems out in Woking.

Labours one and only leaflet I got in the GE was just one big attack piece on the Lib Dems. Didn't even mention the Tories.

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http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/
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My ignore list

Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

Britannist

All efforts should be made to keep the fanatically pro-EU Liberal Dims out of power (local, national and europe). They are more left wing than most of today's Labour Party; they are idiots when it comes to running anything (look at their local council mismanagement) and they have a range of bizarre tax-rising policies which would harm us all.

Apart from that, they are, of course, nothing more than the political arm of the EU in the UK. That's why people like Hugh Dykes (the extreme europhile who was a 'Conservative' MP) joined the Liberal Dims and is now a member of their group in the Lords. As is the awful Baroness Nicholson (another pro-Heseltine 'Tory' MP who joined Campbell's Fiberal Dims). Or why 'Shirley (now Baroness) Williams' - who has been campaigning for the European Movement for decades (long before we were forced into the EEC/EU) - ditched Labour to join what is now the
Liberal 'Democrats'.

'Europe' is the real motivating force in the Liberal Dim party. They are presently trying to disguise their adoration of all things from the EU by talking about anything but 'europe'.