The unofficial opposition is gaining in strength.

jp · 25-09-2006, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Another aspect of YouGov's data should worry Conservatives especially and may even offer Labour supporters a little comfort. According to YouGov, Labour support among the electorate has fallen by five percentage points since the 2005 election and Liberal Democrat support has also fallen by five points — a combined loss of 10 percentage points.

On the face of it, the Tories should have gained most of those 10 points. But they have not done so.

As the figures in the chart indicate, the Conservatives have gained five of them but the various minor parties have gained the other five. The opposition to the Labour Government is thus fragmenting instead of consolidating.

No fewer than 13 per cent of YouGov's respondents say that they would vote for some party other than one of the main three at an early general election. Three per cent would back either the SNP or Plaid Cymru, four per cent Ukip, three per cent the BNP and two per cent the Greens.

These assorted small parties have, between them, had the support of 10 per cent or more of the electorate since the spring of this year.

The unpopularity of the Government is clearly not being translated in any straightforward way into support for the official Opposition. It is the unofficial opposition that is gaining in strength.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...nlabour125.xml

mkpdavies · 25-09-2006, 08:24 AM

Good, long may it continue.

jp · 25-09-2006, 09:22 AM

Yes, great news for UKIP & anybody who wants to see some opposition to the lookalike main parties.

This could well be a significant factor in the next GE & the "big three" should be worried.

mkpdavies · 25-09-2006, 09:48 AM

Is there any major campaign group out there, that fights for ANYONE but the main three.

Things I am thinking of are

1) Going into key marginals and giving out truthful information, that parties wouldn't dare put out for being seen as nasty.

2) Finding rule breaking by the main three and ruthlessly demanding action.

3) Following the main threes town raids, giving the alternative side of the story.

4) Setting up websites to try and co-ordinate the anti-establishment vote behind one of the smaller parties.

5) Trying to get on every T.V. show going, hammering out the anti-establishment message.

I would say now is the time for an organisation like this to help break people out of their old voting pattern and thus chains.

Britannist · 25-09-2006, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jp

Quote:

Another aspect of YouGov's data should worry Conservatives especially and may even offer Labour supporters a little comfort. According to YouGov, Labour support among the electorate has fallen by five percentage points since the 2005 election and Liberal Democrat support has also fallen by five points — a combined loss of 10 percentage points.

On the face of it, the Tories should have gained most of those 10 points. But they have not done so.

As the figures in the chart indicate, the Conservatives have gained five of them but the various minor parties have gained the other five. The opposition to the Labour Government is thus fragmenting instead of consolidating.

No fewer than 13 per cent of YouGov's respondents say that they would vote for some party other than one of the main three at an early general election. Three per cent would back either the SNP or Plaid Cymru, four per cent Ukip, three per cent the BNP and two per cent the Greens.

These assorted small parties have, between them, had the support of 10 per cent or more of the electorate since the spring of this year.

The unpopularity of the Government is clearly not being translated in any straightforward way into support for the official Opposition. It is the unofficial opposition that is gaining in strength.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...nlabour125.xml

Some of the increase of support for UKIP may be due to some eurosceptic and anti-EU Conservative voting people getting fed up with David Cameron. If it's true that the Conservative Party membership has fallen then some of those that have quit the Conservatives might sign up as UKIP members.

The figure of 4% represents about one in every 22 voters across the UK. Within England, UKIP is probably on about a 6% share and could reach 12% across the UK if it went for the 'weak' Liberal 'Democrat' vote - 18% in the latest poll (published yesterday).

As someone said years ago - support for the europhile Liberal Dims is a mile wide but only an inch deep. It would be less than a a quarter of an inch deep if UKIP got the message through to those that vote for the Liberal Dims that it is a pro-euro party which is weak on fighting drugs and very weak on fighting crime. Most people who vote Liberal 'Democrat' are not committed to that party - it is just a protest vote. A study last year found that if people thought the Fiberal Dims were going to win a General Election, voters would desert it in droves.

UKIP beat the pro-EU Liberal Dims in the EU election of 2004 (in votes received) and should aim to to replace them as the 'third' party in the UK in General Elections.

Zak64 · 25-09-2006, 09:45 PM

Seeing as we only got about 2.2 % of the vote at the last GE I find the UKIP on 4% figure mighty encouraging.

A caveat though, I would agree that the glacier watching pro EU non-entity that is Cameron is driving Tory voters to register support as UKIP voters. Whether they actually vote for UKIP on the day of a GE remains to be seen. I guess that if they thought that their vote might just help boot Labour out they would probably revert to type and vote Tory. Doubtless some in ultra safe Tory seats might vote for us as a protest. That's nice, but no basis to get our first MPs.

Also we have had a lot of publicity recently because of Nigel being elected leader. If this is an affect, it will wear off in time. Let's just hope the boy Farage turns us from a pressure group into a fully fledged political party with proper manifesto to govern the country, and leads proper professional campaigns !

I also really like Matt's idea

Quote:

3) Following the main threes town raids, giving the alternative side of the story.

That's just the sort of alternative thinking and campaigning we need !

25-09-2006, 08:24 AM	#2 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	Good, long may it continue. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

25-09-2006, 09:48 AM	#4 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	Is there any major campaign group out there, that fights for ANYONE but the main three. Things I am thinking of are 1) Going into key marginals and giving out truthful information, that parties wouldn't dare put out for being seen as nasty. 2) Finding rule breaking by the main three and ruthlessly demanding action. 3) Following the main threes town raids, giving the alternative side of the story. 4) Setting up websites to try and co-ordinate the anti-establishment vote behind one of the smaller parties. 5) Trying to get on every T.V. show going, hammering out the anti-establishment message. I would say now is the time for an organisation like this to help break people out of their old voting pattern and thus chains. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

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25-09-2006, 09:22 AM	#3 (permalink)
jp Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,000	Yes, great news for UKIP & anybody who wants to see some opposition to the lookalike main parties. This could well be a significant factor in the next GE & the "big three" should be worried.