Anti-UKIP Cameron would win about 30 seats less than Heath

Britannist · 19-09-2006, 01:27 AM

The Cameron-led Conservatives would win just 270 seats in the House of Commons (over 30 less than the Conservatives got in the two 1974 General Elections – both of which they lost) if a General Election were held now, Andrew Grice of the leftist ‘Independent’ newspaper said on 18.9.2006 (having used a weighted average of all main polls in August 2006 to work out the figure). Mr. Grice said that Labour may have only lost 1% of its poll rating despite bad publicity from various issues including squabbling over the leadership (he claims Labour would win 299 seats in the Commons).

According to the 'Independent', the Conservatives and the Liberal Dims combined would still be 6 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons. Labour could, however, govern either with the Liberal Dims (combined overall majority of forty-eight seats) or Labour could secure a majority in the House of Commons if it ‘worked’ with the small parties (not including the Liberal Dims). The five or six Sinn Fein MP’s would not vote and George Galloway MP (if he were re-elected) might not co-operate with Labour – meaning that Labour might govern with a majority of just one seat (or even on the casting vote of The Speaker).

There's more at:

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/pol...cle1616674.ece

* An ICM poll in the europhile pro-Labour Sunday Mirror newspaper edition of 18.9.2006 said support for the Conservatives was 37% (down 3%), Labour 33% (up 2%) and the Liberal Dims 21% (down 1%). Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com used Baxter’s electoral calculus to work out what the ICM poll would mean in seats in the Commons: Labour 292, Conservatives 276, Liberal Dims 50. The Conservatives get fewer seats than their vote share deserves because of the ways constituency boundaries are drawn and because Scotland is still over-represented in the Commons (two things that Labour and the europhile Liberal Dims don’t want changed).

BASILDON BOY · 19-09-2006, 01:51 AM

Sod the number os seats the Tories will get...

...the number of seats UKIP will get is the only number we should be interested in...

Britannist · 19-09-2006, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BASILDON BOY

Sod the number os seats the Tories will get...

...the number of seats UKIP will get is the only number we should be interested in...

'Basildon Boy' - may I request that you be polite when responding to my postings. You have responded in this rude way before :evil: when I have reported on opinion polls and how many seats the Conservatives might win. Please desist. You don't have to agree - but you might try to be more polite to someone on the same anti-EU side as you.

How the Conservative Party is performing is of importance to UKIP since both parties 'share' about 1.3 million voters (the number of people who vote Conservative in General Elections but who backed UKIP at the last EU Election on 10.6.2004). UKIP strategists now believe that millions of Conservative votes are "up for grabs" (as are some votes from other parties) and UKIP's bosses will be watching opinion poll results carefully.

The Conservative Party at election time is also of great interest to UKIP's new leader, Mr. Nigel Farage MEP who said only last week (immediately after the declaration of the UKIP 2006 leadership election result on 12.9.2006) "I pledge to champion a raft of traditional Tory policies Mr. Cameron has jettisoned. I want to give a voice to people who no longer voted for the Conservatives. I confirm that low tax, tough immigration controls and selective education will be “at the core” of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) ‘blueprint for the UK’. David Cameron has abandoned Conservatism and abandoned millions of voters and we need to show those voters that UKIP has matured. There is a huge vacuum in British politics because the three traditional parties do not offer the electorate any real choice. UKIP is now the only party saying what most people think. We will fill the void. We (UKIP) intend to fight Conservative candidates who have failed to declare their support for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.”

Basildon Boy - you say the number of seats UKIP will get is all that you are interested in. Well, you won't get any seats at all unless votes are taken from other parties - and to see if UKIP is moving towards success as regards that aim, one has to look at and examine all opinion polls to monitor progress (which is what I was doing in my last posting to this thread).

It's called politics :shock: .

arden forester · 19-09-2006, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Anti-UKIP Cameron would win about 30 seats less than Heath

Which would mean a hung parliament and Clare Short desperate to get back into the House of Commons!

Colin McNamee · 19-09-2006, 12:59 PM

Thanks for the info Britannist. Always of interest to know about the competition !

Britannist · 19-09-2006, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Colin McNamee

Thanks for the info Britannist. Always of interest to know about the competition !

Thank you for your kind message, Colin

8) .

Britannist · 19-09-2006, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arden forester

Quote:

Anti-UKIP Cameron would win about 30 seats less than Heath

Which would mean a hung parliament and Clare Short desperate to get back into the House of Commons!

Who knows, she might try to get back into politics after a break through an elected House of Lords. I don't think there is a directly elected Mayor of Birmingham (the city where Clare Short is an MP) but if there were to be - she might run for that :shock: .

arden forester · 25-09-2006, 01:26 PM

Quote:

an elected House of Lords

Would she be any different? :?

19-09-2006, 01:27 AM	#1 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Anti-UKIP Cameron would win about 30 seats less than Heath The Cameron-led Conservatives would win just 270 seats in the House of Commons (over 30 less than the Conservatives got in the two 1974 General Elections – both of which they lost) if a General Election were held now, Andrew Grice of the leftist ‘Independent’ newspaper said on 18.9.2006 (having used a weighted average of all main polls in August 2006 to work out the figure). Mr. Grice said that Labour may have only lost 1% of its poll rating despite bad publicity from various issues including squabbling over the leadership (he claims Labour would win 299 seats in the Commons). According to the 'Independent', the Conservatives and the Liberal Dims combined would still be 6 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons. Labour could, however, govern either with the Liberal Dims (combined overall majority of forty-eight seats) or Labour could secure a majority in the House of Commons if it ‘worked’ with the small parties (not including the Liberal Dims). The five or six Sinn Fein MP’s would not vote and George Galloway MP (if he were re-elected) might not co-operate with Labour – meaning that Labour might govern with a majority of just one seat (or even on the casting vote of The Speaker). There's more at: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/pol...cle1616674.ece * An ICM poll in the europhile pro-Labour Sunday Mirror newspaper edition of 18.9.2006 said support for the Conservatives was 37% (down 3%), Labour 33% (up 2%) and the Liberal Dims 21% (down 1%). Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com used Baxter’s electoral calculus to work out what the ICM poll would mean in seats in the Commons: Labour 292, Conservatives 276, Liberal Dims 50. The Conservatives get fewer seats than their vote share deserves because of the ways constituency boundaries are drawn and because Scotland is still over-represented in the Commons (two things that Labour and the europhile Liberal Dims don’t want changed).

19-09-2006, 01:51 AM	#2 (permalink)
BASILDON BOY Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: N'Djamena, Chad Posts: 1,799	Sod the number os seats the Tories will get... ...the number of seats UKIP will get is the only number we should be interested in... __________________ Mike Nattrass MEP is HOT HOT HOT!!!

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19-09-2006, 12:59 PM	#5 (permalink)
Colin McNamee Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Somerset Posts: 894	Thanks for the info Britannist. Always of interest to know about the competition !