Tories static in the polls still

Anthony Butcher · 17-12-2004, 01:25 AM

Quote:

According to what is almost certainly YouGov's last tracking survey before the start of an election year, the Conservative Party evidently suffers from the same problem at the moment. Prodigious efforts yield virtually no results.

While the Labour Party gains or loses a couple of points from time to time, the Tories remain wholly becalmed. A puff of wind after Michael Howard became leader just over a year ago died down almost at once and Tory support today is no higher - indeed slightly lower - than it was at the time of the last General Election.

Roughly a tenth of YouGov's survey was conducted after the resignation of David Blunkett but even that dramatic event appears to have made little or no difference to the parties' standings.

As usual, whenever Labour's support declines - it has now been as low as 35 per cent for two months in a row - the Liberal Democrats and minor parties rather than the Conservatives are the sole beneficiaries.

The chart is quite interesting too:
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/gra...npoll17big.gif
Is that a 2% boost for UKIP I see? That would certainly back up Tony Bennett's result in Essex of 10.8%.

mkpdavies · 17-12-2004, 09:01 AM

Go others!

Others are on the march, and if their polls were not so skewed for the mainstream, they would be even more so!

Karen · 17-12-2004, 12:11 PM

Since conference we seem to have become obsessed with the Tories. As was said then they are dying. It is Labour which is in Government and we need to expose them as many Labour supporters are against the EU too.

johnwest · 17-12-2004, 01:52 PM

Yes, you are right. We must not attack the Tories and ignore the others. The EDP, BNP and Reform parties are a waste of space and should be ignored in our election campaign. They will not get seats. We must concentrate our attack on Labour, Lib-Dems and Tories. Imagine what damage the Libs could do if we have a hung parliament!

FredSucks · 18-12-2004, 04:00 PM

EDP have polled between 0.8% and 20% in Elections and have one Councillor.

Considering we are only 2.5 years old then I don't think we qualify as a 'waste of space'

UKIP have been going for about 15 years I understand.

The answer is co-operation and communication to make the Euro-Sceptic votes count.

EP Employee · 18-12-2004, 04:38 PM

The Tory brand is irretrievably flawed. They've done study groups where anonymously, they reveal rafts of policies to voters who are generally wholly in favour. They then reveal the policies to be Tory, at which point support for those policies completely withers away.

May will see Labour landslide 3 with good gains for the Lib Dems. After this, the Tories have to realise that they are dead as an electoral prospect and need to voluntarily disband, so that another, unflawed, centre-right party can rise in their stead.

Intbel · 18-12-2004, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EP Employee

May will see Labour landslide 3 with good gains for the Lib Dems.

It is not useful to believe such a thing.

If all folks thought like that we'd not get one leaflet delivered.

If you go INTO phpbb_an election, or attempt any challenge believing the opposition will win - the opposition will win.

jp · 18-12-2004, 05:44 PM

I don't think the polls or latest local elections point to a Labour landslide.
What they do show is an increase in support for minority parties. I also think there is a case to be made that the polls understate the effect minor parties may exert on the election.

Dr Richard Taylor's (Wyre Forest) success at the last election was, in my opinion an indication of where we at headed at the next election. Look out for local single - issue groups such as the Scottish movement supporting the Black Watch.

All this is good news for UKIP

ukip kipper · 19-12-2004, 11:34 AM

Opinion polls generally underestimate the support for so-called 'minority parties'. Many opinion polls still don't include UKIP in their list of voting options, so I assume that voters would have to 'ask for ukip by name' rather than choose one of the given options.

YouGov is much fairer - hence the higher level of UKIP support.

However, in 2001 there was a significant negative impact on UKIP's performance when we stood against other 'minor parties' - be they extreme left (eg. Green) or extreme right (eg. BNP).

UKIP intend to field candidates pretty much everywhere. I don't think the Greens/BNP/Respect etc. do. So UKIP will pick up the whole of the 'protest vote' against the three main parties in the seats where there are only 4 candidates.

This could easily be worth an extra 1% on top of the opinion poll showings on election day.

17-12-2004, 09:01 AM	#2 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	Go others! Others are on the march, and if their polls were not so skewed for the mainstream, they would be even more so! __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

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17-12-2004, 12:11 PM	#3 (permalink)
Karen Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Maldon Posts: 302	Since conference we seem to have become obsessed with the Tories. As was said then they are dying. It is Labour which is in Government and we need to expose them as many Labour supporters are against the EU too.

17-12-2004, 01:52 PM	#4 (permalink)
johnwest Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Suffolk Posts: 827 Party: UKIP	Yes, you are right. We must not attack the Tories and ignore the others. The EDP, BNP and Reform parties are a waste of space and should be ignored in our election campaign. They will not get seats. We must concentrate our attack on Labour, Lib-Dems and Tories. Imagine what damage the Libs could do if we have a hung parliament!

18-12-2004, 04:00 PM	#5 (permalink)
FredSucks Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,941	EDP have polled between 0.8% and 20% in Elections and have one Councillor. Considering we are only 2.5 years old then I don't think we qualify as a 'waste of space' UKIP have been going for about 15 years I understand. The answer is co-operation and communication to make the Euro-Sceptic votes count.

18-12-2004, 04:38 PM	#6 (permalink)
EP Employee Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 55	The Tory brand is irretrievably flawed. They've done study groups where anonymously, they reveal rafts of policies to voters who are generally wholly in favour. They then reveal the policies to be Tory, at which point support for those policies completely withers away. May will see Labour landslide 3 with good gains for the Lib Dems. After this, the Tories have to realise that they are dead as an electoral prospect and need to voluntarily disband, so that another, unflawed, centre-right party can rise in their stead.

18-12-2004, 05:44 PM	#8 (permalink)
jp Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 996	I don't think the polls or latest local elections point to a Labour landslide. What they do show is an increase in support for minority parties. I also think there is a case to be made that the polls understate the effect minor parties may exert on the election. Dr Richard Taylor's (Wyre Forest) success at the last election was, in my opinion an indication of where we at headed at the next election. Look out for local single - issue groups such as the Scottish movement supporting the Black Watch. All this is good news for UKIP

19-12-2004, 11:34 AM	#9 (permalink)
ukip kipper Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 303	Opinion polls generally underestimate the support for so-called 'minority parties'. Many opinion polls still don't include UKIP in their list of voting options, so I assume that voters would have to 'ask for ukip by name' rather than choose one of the given options. YouGov is much fairer - hence the higher level of UKIP support. However, in 2001 there was a significant negative impact on UKIP's performance when we stood against other 'minor parties' - be they extreme left (eg. Green) or extreme right (eg. BNP). UKIP intend to field candidates pretty much everywhere. I don't think the Greens/BNP/Respect etc. do. So UKIP will pick up the whole of the 'protest vote' against the three main parties in the seats where there are only 4 candidates. This could easily be worth an extra 1% on top of the opinion poll showings on election day.