New poll is bad news for Tories

Anthony Butcher · 28-11-2004, 02:17 AM

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...0&in_a_source=

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The Conservatives are trailing Labour by a wider margin than in their landslide general election defeat under William Hague, according to a poll in a Sunday newspaper

The survey, to be published in the Independent on Sunday, put the Tories on 31%, some 11 points behind Labour's 42%.

In a further blow to leader Michael Howard, those taking part rated Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats as a more effective opposition to Labour than the Tories.

In a mark of how far Mr Howard has to go to convince voters he is on the winning side, the survey found 42% of those questioned expected the Conservatives to remain out of power for 10 years or more - rising to 53% of younger voters in the 18 to 24 age group.
Mr Kennedy has made replacing the Conservatives as the effective opposition in Westminster his key goal for this Parliament.

The survey suggested that 44% of voters believe he has achieved his aim, compared to 41% who said the Tories still provide the main opposition to Tony Blair's Government.

Among non-Tory voters, the margin was even wider, with 53% plumping for the Lib Dems as the effective opposition, against 34% for the Conservatives.

But the Liberal Democrats still trailed the Tories by 11 points on voting intention, with 20%.

Anthony Butcher · 28-11-2004, 02:21 AM

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/pol...p?story=587576

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Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats now provide more effective opposition to the Government than Michael Howard, according to a poll for The Independent on Sunday.

The poll, which shows the Conservatives trailing Labour by 11 percentage points - the widest margin since May 2003 - will make dismal reading for Mr Howard. It suggests that the Tories are performing less well than in the final days of Iain Duncan Smith, replaced by Mr Howard a year ago this month. In Mr Duncan Smith's last month as leader, Labour enjoyed an average lead in the polls of five points.

On taking the fight to the Government, Mr Howard has been outdone by Mr Kennedy. Asked if "Charles Kennedy and the Liberal Democrats are a more effective opposition than Mr Howard and the Tories", 44 per cent agree and 41 per cent disagree.

mkpdavies · 28-11-2004, 12:36 PM

What was this, the Richard Corbett labour supporters club poll in Labourland?

If Labour get anywhere near 44% in the real election, I will have to wonder if the British people deserve freedom anymore!

Anthony Butcher · 28-11-2004, 12:45 PM

They probably did the poll while standing outside a local Labour party meeting. The poll is too different from every other recent poll to be taken seriously, otherwise Labour have gained 10% in a week, the Tories have dropped 3% and Lib Dems have dropped 3%.

johnwest · 28-11-2004, 01:59 PM

I really think the Tories are finished as a major force. I was speaking to a Tory member the other week. He said the Tories in Suffolk are finished. Their branches are not attracting new members. Every year they lose members and supporters through illness or death. The majority of their members are 65+. They can't attract younger members for love or money. He said that at this rate they will be a spent force locally within ten years. This is a golden opportunity for UKIP to replace them as the only patriotic party committed to the welfare of the British people.

James StGeorge · 28-11-2004, 03:34 PM

UKIP's age appearance is much older than the Conservatives.
Unfortunately it is the split in the right of centre caused in part by UKIP that is keeping sensible governments from power.

Face it, in a national election UKIP views are more likely to be advanced by voting Conservative. Only if the system changed would it be different. UKIP should not stand in the national elections. As a anti EU party they have a good place for EU elections, otherwise they actually work against the best interest of their members general views if the cause the main right of centre party to lose votes.

Anthony Butcher · 28-11-2004, 04:55 PM

Where do I even begin in answering that.....

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Unfortunately it is the split in the right of centre caused in part by UKIP that is keeping sensible governments from power.

UKIP is not a right wing party. The whole idea of right/left wing politics was discredited long ago in Britain. We now have liberal vs authoritarian, and that is the only meaningful measure of parties. UKIP is a liberal party on the whole.

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Face it, in a national election UKIP views are more likely to be advanced by voting Conservative

Huh? You do understand that the Tories want to remain in the EU, but UKIP wants to pull us out? The two parties have completely opposing views.

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UKIP should not stand in the national elections.

UKIP is the only party offering the British the chance to vote themselves out of the EU. If we don't stand in the general election, Britain will be doomed forever.

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As a anti EU party they have a good place for EU elections, otherwise they actually work against the best interest of their members general views if the cause the main right of centre party to lose votes

Good. The Conservatives are the most deceitful of all the parties on the EU. They pretend to be "eurosceptic" yet their policy is to remain in the EU. They are a pro-EU party. The quicker that the Tories die, the better for Britain. At least the Lib Dems and Labour are open about their desire to hand over our sovereignty.

James StGeorge · 28-11-2004, 05:32 PM

Then sadly that is not how UKIP is seen. It is seen as a reactionary and old persons party of somewhere between the Conservatives and the BNP. Perhaps due to the name it is also a one issue party.

More and more people have to vote tactically now. A vote for a party that is not going to win the seat is wasted. The LDs get all the protest votes against either or both the other two. Yes Conservatives are not ideal, but general elections are about he least worst party to support that may win, not your ideal one. General elections are not single issue affairs, one has to take a hotch potch basket of policies.

The promised referendums are the place where the EU relationship will be scuppered, UKIP will never become the government, but can be of powerful voice on the EU issue.

We have a liberal party, they love the EU, we need the main right wing party to be much more liberal in regard to our freedoms, leaving despotic authoritarianism to the Left and Labour.

Anthony Butcher · 28-11-2004, 05:49 PM

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Then sadly that is not how UKIP is seen.

True, to some extent. However, most people have very little impression of UKIP. The main image that they have is Mr Kilroy-Silk.

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More and more people have to vote tactically now.

Evidence?

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A vote for a party that is not going to win the seat is wasted.

Yet people continue to vote for the party they support. Let's take Woodspring for instance. Liam Fox has a seemingly invulnerable seat, with nearly a 9000 majority. Yet 23,000 people voted for the Lib Dems and Labour in the constituency last time. Their candidates were never going to win, but the people voted for them anyway. In a democracy, people vote for the party they support. "Tactical voting" is what politicians use to manipulate the voters.

And the June elections showed quite clearly that votes for UKIP are never wasted. All three major parties upped their euroscepticism afterwards, and the Tories even began talking about repatriation of powers.

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General elections are not single issue affairs, one has to take a hotch potch basket of policies

Not entirely true. Dr Richard Taylor was elected on a single hospital issue in Wyre Forest.

And UKIP does, and will, have a full manifesto. We are no longer just about getting our of the EU, it is now about getting our country back from the corporate lapdogs in the main parties, and ending the deculturalisation of Britain.

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We have a liberal party, they love the EU

Sorry to nit-pick again (it is annoying I know!), but the Liberal Party is anti-EU. The Liberal democrats are pro-EU.

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we need the main right wing party to be much more liberal in regard to our freedoms

Unfortunately, it was the Tories who began the nonsense. In fact, wasn't it Michael Howard who first seriously put forward the notion of ID cards for Britain?

James StGeorge · 28-11-2004, 07:33 PM

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The main image that they have is Mr Kilroy-Silk.

I would say he improved the image, without him the image I feel is more aged and ex-majors. This may be far from the truth, but the image. Stuck in the minds is the old man and his comment about wives cleaning behind fridge. I would say that is the archetypal image of UKIP.

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Evidence?

The Lib-Dems. taking the second place in both Conservative and Labour areas. Those without hope of their preferred party vote for the most likely to get the other out. You could say the UKIP EU vote is big evidence, many Conservatives were saying when interviewed they were voting just for the EU election and would return to the conservatives for the general election. It was a display to the Cs to stay on the No side.

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Their candidates were never going to win, but the people voted for them anyway

Yes in any constituency where there is no real chance of anything but one party winning you are completely helpless and impotent(if it is not the party you want). It frees you to vote for any party fringe or not as all it can do is show support to your preference. Not forgetting many will vote automatically with little insight to the usefulness. Amongst the more politically interested, a small portion of the people, you do see more comment of voting for whoever could beat X or Y rather than bind party support. If a lib-dem can take a seat from Labour it helps the Conservatives, and vice versa.

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Dr Richard Taylor was elected on a single hospital issue in Wyre Forest

True, but the passions raised were very particular to the seat, rather than a national issue. I do not know if any of the other parties backed off to let the seat be taken from Labour. As happened to get that ex bbc journalist, whose name escapes me at the moment, elected, to take a Conservative seat.

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Sorry to nit-pick again

OK fair cop! So irrelevant are the Libs I meant LDs

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In fact, wasn't it Michael Howard who first seriously put forward the notion of ID cards for Britain?

More than likely. I disliked the removal of the proper right to silence which was under their watch too. However parties change, who would have thought the Labour party of the past era would have been like 'New' Labour? Like Labour taking its base support for granted and moving onto Conservative territory, the Conservatives need to assume their tough on crime image and add a big concern to protect and restore our ancient liberties.

28-11-2004, 12:36 PM	#3 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,832 Party: Libertarian Party	What was this, the Richard Corbett labour supporters club poll in Labourland? If Labour get anywhere near 44% in the real election, I will have to wonder if the British people deserve freedom anymore! __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

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28-11-2004, 12:45 PM	#4 (permalink)
Anthony Butcher Administrator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Long Ashton, Bristol Posts: 10,140 Party: None	They probably did the poll while standing outside a local Labour party meeting. The poll is too different from every other recent poll to be taken seriously, otherwise Labour have gained 10% in a week, the Tories have dropped 3% and Lib Dems have dropped 3%.

28-11-2004, 01:59 PM	#5 (permalink)
johnwest Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Suffolk Posts: 827 Party: UKIP	I really think the Tories are finished as a major force. I was speaking to a Tory member the other week. He said the Tories in Suffolk are finished. Their branches are not attracting new members. Every year they lose members and supporters through illness or death. The majority of their members are 65+. They can't attract younger members for love or money. He said that at this rate they will be a spent force locally within ten years. This is a golden opportunity for UKIP to replace them as the only patriotic party committed to the welfare of the British people.

28-11-2004, 03:34 PM	#6 (permalink)
James StGeorge Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 65	UKIP's age appearance is much older than the Conservatives. Unfortunately it is the split in the right of centre caused in part by UKIP that is keeping sensible governments from power. Face it, in a national election UKIP views are more likely to be advanced by voting Conservative. Only if the system changed would it be different. UKIP should not stand in the national elections. As a anti EU party they have a good place for EU elections, otherwise they actually work against the best interest of their members general views if the cause the main right of centre party to lose votes.

28-11-2004, 05:32 PM	#8 (permalink)
James StGeorge Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 65	Then sadly that is not how UKIP is seen. It is seen as a reactionary and old persons party of somewhere between the Conservatives and the BNP. Perhaps due to the name it is also a one issue party. More and more people have to vote tactically now. A vote for a party that is not going to win the seat is wasted. The LDs get all the protest votes against either or both the other two. Yes Conservatives are not ideal, but general elections are about he least worst party to support that may win, not your ideal one. General elections are not single issue affairs, one has to take a hotch potch basket of policies. The promised referendums are the place where the EU relationship will be scuppered, UKIP will never become the government, but can be of powerful voice on the EU issue. We have a liberal party, they love the EU, we need the main right wing party to be much more liberal in regard to our freedoms, leaving despotic authoritarianism to the Left and Labour.