Britannist

You just don't get it do you?

You fail to understand the tactics of the europhile Liberal 'Democrats'. This concerns me because you claim to live in a seat with one who is your MP.

You give the impression of being somewhat sympathetic to the europhile Liberal 'Democrats'.

Let me repeat what I wrote in posting number 22 to this thread (where I tried to get it through to you that the tactic of one or two Liberal 'Democrats' may be to look a bit eurosceptic for a while so they can hold their highly marginal seats at the next General Election before resuming their usual habit of voting for all EU legislation and EU Treaties before the House of Commons):

It "does you no credit" Mr. Allen in avoiding facing the political realities on this matter.

I am not "assuming the worst of these two men" (your words above) - I am stating a straightforward political fact: pro-EU Liberal 'Democrats' Heath and Hemming may vote for a referendum on the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty) but they do so as part of an effort to hold on to their marginal seats.

Should they both retain their seats (and I hope that neither do) they would be back in the Commons voting for EU legislation: for both are committed europhiles in an opportunistic sham of a party widely (and understandably) loathed in the Commons). A party which is nothing more than the political arm of the EU in the UK.

If Heath and Hemming vote for a referendum on the EU Constitution they will simply be honouring their party's 2005 General Election Manifesto pledge - spend time not in congratulating europhile Liberal 'Democrats' for keeping a promise (keeping promises is something all politicians should do without expecting special thanks for it): concentrate instead on criticising those MPs who vote against a Treaty referendum.

It could even be argued that the Liberal 'Democrat' leadership might think it advantageous to have a couple of MPs in its ranks backing a referendum - for it will allow for two things:

1. Those Liberal 'Democrat' MPs who campaign openly for an EU Treaty referendum will increase their chances of holding on to eurosceptic votes in their seats and thus retaining the two constituencies for the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' so they can vote for more EU Treaties and more EU legislation put before the Commons after the next election

...and...

2. It will help the Liberal 'Democrats' hold on to some eurosceptic votes because it will enable Liberal 'Democrat' canvassers to tell eurosceptic voters who bring up the issue of a Treaty referendum that "we have some MPs in our party who voted for a Treaty referendum so we see your point of view and you can vote for us" (with the Liberal 'Democrat' canvasser carefully avoiding mentioning telling the voter that out of about 62 MPs 59 or 60 voted against a Treaty referendum).

I have no sympathy with the dishonest and opportunistic europhile Liberal 'Democrats' or any of its membership and no one should trust any of that shower.

Britannist

Another marginal constituency. And if he holds it through getting eurosceptics to vote for him on the EU Treaty referendum issue he will be back there in the Commons for another five years voting through more legislation/Treaties giving the EU what's left of our sovereignty.

I hope the voters of Teignbridge boot him out next time whatever promises he makes.

Britannist

I second the above.

The tactics of the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' (which I explained in posting 22 to this thread) are clear and obvious to all true anti-EU activists.

Richard Allen

You don't need to be a mind reader to make an educated prediction about a seat which you have substantial knowledge of. It is of course possible that I am wrong but I am very very confident that Hemming will hold this seat due to a number of local factors. The Lib Dem organisation in this seat is extremely strong, they have a string of popular local councillors and Hemming has the name recognition (in this seat) that some cabinet ministers would be envious of.

You may know quite a lot about them but you certainly don't give the impression that you do. Everything you say gives the impression that you think all Lib Dems are the same and are all motivated by the same thing.

Well I guess that told me. Having been through a constituency hundreds of times hardly makes you familiar with it's politics. There are many seats up and down the country that I have been through on many occasions but I don't pretend that this allows me a good understanding of the local political situation.

If you consider it sanctimonious for me to think that I know far more about this seat than you then so be it. I would just say that it is a matter of local knowledge. Anyway, this is message board and I will post in whatever thread I damn well please, will respond to whatever post I damn well please and will do so in any tone I damn well please. As for 'whoever you are', I post under my real name.


EDIT: However, and I want to be very clear on this, I am in no way advocating that UKIP should not contest these seats.

Britannist

The choice for pro-sovereignty voters in the marginal seats of the miniscule number of Liberal 'Democrat' MPs who claim they want an EU Treaty referendum at the next General Election will be:

1. Vote for the Liberal 'Democrat' MP because he says he wants an EU Treaty referendum but risk re-electing a man who will be promoting the EU as soon as he is back in the Commons; who supports the euro and EU Government and who will (once safely back inside the Commons Chamber) be enthusiastically voting for the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty) and for any other EU Treaties given half a chance.

2. Vote Conservative - the local Conservative (Tory) candidate will almost certainly be in favour of an EU Treaty referendum and, unlike the Liberal 'Democrat' candidate, s/he will be against the euro and opposed to the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty). But (unless s/he is a member of Better off Out of the EU) s/he is likely to support staying in the EU.

3. Vote UKIP - a party which wants an EU Treaty referendum and which wants out of the EU: no euro, no EU Constitution and no EU Superstate.

Richard Allen

I get it perfectly well. I understand that tactics used by many political parties but I am not so blind to believe that every member of a political party thinks the same.

No, I am simply praising two men for doing the right thing.

Britannist

I never suggested that he was - I just think that he wants to hold his marginal seat (hardly a surprise) - which he thinks he has a better chance of by supporting an EU Treaty referendum. His constituency is, of course, in the south-west EU electoral 'region': strong for UKIP and he must fear losing votes to a UKIP candidate in his seat campaigning for a retrospective Treaty referendum when the General Election campaign starts.

Britannist

Put money on your "educated prediction" based on your "substantial knowledge" (as you modestly put it) at the betting shop have you.

You seem pretty confident of the result I would imagine that you there expect such a bet to bring you big winnings on election night next time?

Britannist

Sadly Richard you "don't give the impression" that you understand the tactics of the Liberal 'Democrats'.

It suits some europhile political parties to have a couple of position holders in them who sound a bit eurosceptic just so those parties can impress eurosceptic voters and hold on to some of the eurosceptic vote in highly marginal constituencies they want and need to retain.

Britannist

Richard: I have visited Yardley and not just been through it, I should say. I am sure you have a very good knowledge of the seat but that does not necessarily mean you know more about your local Liberal 'Democrat' MP Hemming's political record than I do just because you live in the constituency he currently holds.

I also fail to see how you possibly appear to automatically assume that because you live in Yardley you know more about Liberal 'Democrat' Heath in Somerton-Frome: many in 'the Westminster village' and in the political media may know more about Heath's views and voting record than some others away from that area might.

I also know that the anti-Iraq 'war' protest vote exists in Yardley - despite you implying that it does not. All constituencies have voters who refused to vote for the Blair-led Labour regime last time who will now return to the Labour 'fold' assuming that withdrawal of UK troops from Iraq is under way before the next General Election. I expect that Hemming will lose votes to Labour because of this. Whether he loses Yardley is a different issue. You claim he will not. I just make the point that I hope he does and that the chances of him losing it next time are higher than in 2005.