Britannist

Will it be exactly the same seat at the next General Election? Boundary changes (effective since last February) have changed some constituencies.

Hemming is going to lose some votes to Labour as the anti-Iraq 'war' protest vote (which so helped the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' increase their support level at the last General Election by about a fifth) return to their former Labour 'home'.

This means that Hemming could lose Birmingham Yardley next time even if he gets exactly the same number of votes as last time.

As I imply earlier, this calculation is based on there being no boundary changes at Birmingham Yardley if there are boundary changes it could help Hemming or they could (hopefully) harm his electoral prospects.

Britannist

It "does you no credit" Mr. Allen in avoiding facing the political realities on this matter.

I am not "assuming the worst of these two men" (your words above) - I am stating a straightforward political fact: pro-EU Liberal 'Democrats' Heath and Hemming may vote for a referendum on the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty) but they do so as part of an effort to hold on to their marginal seats.

Should they both retain their seats (and I hope that neither do) they would be back in the Commons voting for EU legislation: for both are committed europhiles in an opportunistic sham of a party widely (and understandably) loathed in the Commons). A party which is nothing more than the political arm of the EU in the UK.

If Heath and Hemming vote for a referendum on the EU Constitution they will simply be honouring their party's 2005 General Election Manifesto pledge - spend time not in congratulating europhile Liberal 'Democrats' for keeping a promise (keeping promises is something all politicians should do without expecting special thanks for it): concentrate instead on criticising those MPs who vote against a Treaty referendum.

It could even be argued that the Liberal 'Democrat' leadership might think it advantageous to have a couple of MPs in its ranks backing a referendum - for it will allow for two things:

1. Those Liberal 'Democrat' MPs who campaign openly for an EU Treaty referendum will increase their chances of holding on to eurosceptic votes in their seats and thus retaining the two constituencies for the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' so they can vote for more EU Treaties and more EU legislation put before the Commons after the next election

...and...

2. It will help the Liberal 'Democrats' hold on to some eurosceptic votes because it will enable Liberal 'Democrat' canvassers to tell eurosceptic voters who bring up the issue of a Treaty referendum that "we have some MPs in our party who voted for a Treaty referendum so we see your point of view and you can vote for us" (with the Liberal 'Democrat' canvasser carefully avoiding mentioning telling the voter that out of about 62 MPs 59 or 60 voted against a Treaty referendum).

I have no sympathy with the dishonest and opportunistic europhile Liberal 'Democrats' or any of its membership and no one should trust any of that shower.

Hartlepool

Does anyone believe that the LIB-LAB CONS would not put up a candidate against a UKIPPER if they did a 180degree about turn?

Not likely eh?

kernow

Richard Younger- Ross, Teignbridge, has also said he will vote for a Referendum!

Baron von Lotsov

Britannist

The trouble is that all three parties have a europhile leadership and so there is nowhere for the eurosceptic to go. Most look like they often have to decide between voting for the lesser of two evils, i.e. the Conservatives, but with Cameron in charge this is a rather distasteful thing to do. So we need change from within and what I think is preventing this is the assumption that someone is a born europhile.

This is simply not the case, they have been brainwashed into it and as people get older the brainwashing is less effective and can wear off. The best way to persuade someone is one of their own peers talking to them. I don't get the impression Heath is any kind of Machiavellian character and a few more like him and Clegg will start to see a problem in his party. I look forward to the day. The Libdems, especially now, since how on earth can you belong to a party with 'democrat' in its name and deny people the voice on the future of their country, having already voted for a party that promised it. I see this as a now or never thing. We need more Libdems to speak up and time is running out for them to do so.

__________________
"A government big enough to supply you with everything you need, is a government big enough to take away everything that you have..."

Richard Allen

There are boundary changes which see the seat increase in size quite a bit. The incoming areas are decent for the Lib Dem's although not quite as good as the existing areas. As for the Iraq war protest vote, It is virtually non existent in this seat. Don't mistake Birmingham Yardley for an inner city seat that went Lib Dem because of Iraq and other issues that angered the hard left. The Lib Dem's worked this seat hard for nearly 20 years before finally winning it and are now strongly established. Short of a major scandal Hemming is not going to lose this seat and I would be surprised if his majority is less than 5,000.

Richard Allen

With all due respect you do not, unless you are a mind reader, know why these two MP's are voting the way that they are. You most likely know very little about either of them, why they went into politics or what they believe in. Not all Lib Dem's are the same anymore than all Ukipers are the same.

Hartlepool

UKIP must stand against these two and others who try the same stunt.

Everybody knows what lengths the Lib-Dems will stoop to in their forward thinking plan of attack against our country in support of their Federalist EU.

We are almost with our backs to the wall,give them no quarter,take them on ;till the very end.

Britannist

And with "all due respect" to you:

1. Regarding your "mind reader" comment - how do you known that Hemming will hold Yardley next time?

2. As for your patronising remark that "I most likely know very little about either of them" - for all know I may move and/or work in political circles and know a great deal about their political record and views. I may also have an exceptionally good knowledge of the voting record of MPs and through decades of political involvement may just have a detailed and in-depth knowledge of the tactics of the vile Liberal 'Democrat' party which is rightly loathed throughout the House of Commons.

3. As for "why they went into politics" I couldn't care less what they or any other member of the hideous pro-EU Liberal 'Democrat' party give as their alleged reasons for going into politics - their reasons are about as interesting to me as watching paint dry. What concerns me is the damage these people are doing to our country by supporting mass immigration and transfer of the sovereign powers of our nation to the EU.

4. I would also remind you that not only am I familiar iwth the voting record and speeches of Heath and Hemming - but I know the Yardley constituency of Birmingham (the seat of Hemming - hopefully not for much longer) having been through it hundreds of times. I have also visited the Somerton-Frome constituency (the seat of Heath up until and hopefully not beyond the next General Election).

Now - whoever you are - if you can't change your sanctimonious tone don't try and communicate with me please.

Britannist

How do you know that the Iraq 'war' protest vote "is virtually non-existent" in Yardley? Done a canvass of every house in the constituency on this matter have you?

The anti-Iraq 'war' protest vote exists in in every constituency in the land - it pushed up the national Liberal Dim party vote share from 18% (2001 to 23% (2005).

It is not - as you naively imply - confined to just "inner city" (your words) seats. Labour lost some rural seats to the Conservatives at the last General Election without the Conservative vote going up at all on 2001 - simply because some Labour voters angry about Iraq switched to the third-place Liberal 'Democrats'.

Labour will get back most of the anti-Iraq 'war' protest voters next time which it lost in May 2005 and this - together with the Conservatives pushing hard to get votes from people who voted Liberal 'Democrat' at the last General Election - will squeeze the vote of the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' at Yardley, Somerset-Frome and and in all the other seats they hold (as well as in their target constituencies they hope to gain).