I voted 2-4%, purely on the basis of what happened in Crewe; there doesn't seem to be any suggestion that UKIP will improve its position (2.5% in 2005).
Henley should be a much easier fight than Crewe for UKIP, because the Labour/Tory fight is largely irrelevant there, and there won't be such a squeeze. However, this time UKIP's main rival for the 'fourth' party spot, the BNP, will also be standing. That will eat into the immigration protest vote that UKIP might have expected to pick up there, leaving UKIP to depend on its own core vote instead. The Lib Dems are going to hit Henley hard, and I would expect them to pick up the lost Labour votes.
Had this been a couple of year's ago, I would have perhaps expected 7-10% from a strong UKIP campaign. It will be interesting to see whether UKIP can regain those previously very good by-election results. They could certainly use a strong result.
It will also be interesting to see what kind of campaign UKIP runs. If it focuses solely on immigration and/or the EU, as they normally do, I suggest that my 2-4% prediction is most likely.
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