I was thinking about my prediction for the EU elections and started looking at the numbers. UKIP will need at least 13-14% in any given region to secure an MEP there. I have to say that it is not unimaginable for the party to receive a respectable 10-12% across the country and get no MEPs at all.
I haven't seen anything to suggest a massive drop of support for UKIP, but nor have I seen anything to suggest that they will make the same number of votes as last time. Without the RKS boost and the media interest, I can see UKIP's average vote dropping from 16% to 12% or less very easily. That might just put them back down to three MEPs - one each in the South East, East Midlands and South West for example.
It all depends on the media interest in the run up to the election. Those few percentage points are incredibly important. While the system is supposed to be proportional, the fact that there is a 13% minimum (roughly) to get that first seat is going to make it tough. 13% is a very high percentage for a small party.
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