British Democracy Forum - View Single Post - Portillo implies Cameron-Tories NOT on course to win next Election

Britannist · 09-05-2008, 10:23 AM

To win an overall majority of 1 at the next General Election the Conservatives need the biggest electoral swing they have ever achieved in opposition in the modern era - larger than the record electoral swing from Labour to the Conservatives secured by Lady Thatcher who took the Conservatives from opposition to Government at the 1979 General Election.

During the 1980s the Conservative Government lost a number of Parliamentary By-Elections to Labour but still went on to win the General Elections which took place after those losses. So even if the Cameron-Conservatives win the Crewe-Nantwich Parliamentary By-Election on 22.5.2008 it is still possible for the Labour Party to win a fourth consecutive General Election victory next time - just as the Conservatives did in 1992 after By-Election losses before then including the famous Labour gain from the Conservatives in the 1990 Staffordshire-mid (Lichfield) poll.

09-05-2008, 10:23 AM	#4 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Lady Thatcher, Conservatives, Labour, By-Elections, Crewe-Nantwich, Lichfield To win an overall majority of 1 at the next General Election the Conservatives need the biggest electoral swing they have ever achieved in opposition in the modern era - larger than the record electoral swing from Labour to the Conservatives secured by Lady Thatcher who took the Conservatives from opposition to Government at the 1979 General Election. During the 1980s the Conservative Government lost a number of Parliamentary By-Elections to Labour but still went on to win the General Elections which took place after those losses. So even if the Cameron-Conservatives win the Crewe-Nantwich Parliamentary By-Election on 22.5.2008 it is still possible for the Labour Party to win a fourth consecutive General Election victory next time - just as the Conservatives did in 1992 after By-Election losses before then including the famous Labour gain from the Conservatives in the 1990 Staffordshire-mid (Lichfield) poll.