Anyone who looks at the "12" and says "UKIP can improve on 12" is deluding themselves. The RKS factor has long gone, and UKIP has fared poorly in almost every election since then.
UKIP would have real trouble winning seats, even without the BNP (who will be able to mount a much bigger campaign than last time) cutting into its share of the vote.
The BNP will likely win a few seats, and UKIP will stop the BNP winning any more. UKIP itself won't win anything. It will just be the final sad battle of attrition between UKIP and the BNP.
For no reason at all, some people believe that things will magically resurge for UKIP, and it will suddenly become organised and focussed. From its dismal election performances, suddenly its vote share will rise from nowhere to some much larger number, and it will win seats.
This will not happen.
2009 will be the end for UKIP, as it loses all its MEP's. The party will begin the slide into irrelevance (and cannibalisation by the BNP) shortly after that.
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