Do we know what the thresholds are for getting MEPs elected in each region? That could have a major effect.
There are going to be less seats available, I believe, so that will put the squeeze on every party.
Interestingly, due to the large constituencies, it makes it much easier for parties like UKIP with a wide spread of support, to gain seats than parties with localised support, such as respect and the Greens.
Having said that, I expect to see the Tories hold their position or gain a couple, depending on how much they can milk the referendum issue. The Lib Dems will hold their own I suspect, picking up the disillusioned Labour voters. Labour will drop 5 or 6 I think, taking up most of the seat reductions. UKIP will drop to 6-8 I expect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a BNP MEP somewhere.
That's assuming that UKIP can recreate some serious levels of media interest in the EU. The fact that they handed the ball to the Tories over the Lisbon Treaty isn't going to help at all. If the next EU election becomes about the referendum, then it is the Tories who are going to be in the strong position and UKIP will be playing catch-up.
I haven't seen any evidence of UKIP either maintaining its current 12 or increasing its seats. However, it is very difficult to tell, given that the EU is UKIP's specialist subject and there aren't any related elections in between EU elections. I just can't see how UKIP can do so well again without recreating the media storm of 2004.
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