British Democracy Forum - View Single Post - Question Predictions for Euro Elections 2009

22ANDUK · 08-05-2008, 08:32 PM

As the 'Lists' are being drawn already...

Currently the make-up of the UK representation to the European Parliament (England, Wales and Scotland) is:

(Elected 2004)

Conservative 27
Labour 19
UK Independence 12 (Since then UKIP has lost Ashley Mote, Tom Wise and Robert Kilroy-Silk.)
Liberal Democrat 12
Green 2
SNP 2
Plaid Cymru 1

Going by current trends, how will next year's results turn out?

I'd go for:

I would probably expect the Tories to round up a couple more, on the back of pure anti-Labour feeling and if still in office, anti-Gordon Brown resentment.

The Liberal Democrats will be keen to go for the 'Paddick' effect and stand well-known figures not from traditional Lib Dem territory - many Lib Dems and Brian Paddick himself feel a bit 'robbed' that their 'master-stroke' was over-shadowed by the Boris Johnson/Ken Livingstone duel. However, might see a squeeze and no gains/losses for the party - maybe even 1 loss.

Labour won't suffer greatly - but stand by for a few culls, perhaps 3 or 4.

UKIP will 'technically' lose 3 seats - but as these 3 will have all been held by Kilroy-Silk (who will lose or won't stand), Wise and Mote it won't be a great loss. There might be a change of personnel, but I reckon UKIP will have a breath of life for these elections. If they falter, a possible reduction of 2 though - if the bounce of 2004 cannot be repeated seeing the party return to pre-2004 days.

The Greens will stabilise, no gains more than 1. No change for Plaid Cymru or the SNP - busy as usual.

As for breakthroughs. Respect will put up the big gun of George Galloway (obviously scared that he'll soon be losing his Bow seat and its perks - hence his standing for the London Assembly), and might mobilise the joint socialist/islamic vote enough to secure their first MEP. It will be a close-run thing again for the BNP, who will fancy their chances - not sure where but will probably push for one in the capital (after the GLA results) or the north. The English Democrats will go for it too, doing well in South East and South West, but just not enough mileage for a seat.

What do you think, big changes or a few amendents?

08-05-2008, 08:32 PM	#1 (permalink)
22ANDUK Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,438	Predictions for Euro Elections 2009 As the 'Lists' are being drawn already... Currently the make-up of the UK representation to the European Parliament (England, Wales and Scotland) is: (Elected 2004) Conservative 27 Labour 19 UK Independence 12 (Since then UKIP has lost Ashley Mote, Tom Wise and Robert Kilroy-Silk.) Liberal Democrat 12 Green 2 SNP 2 Plaid Cymru 1 Going by current trends, how will next year's results turn out? I'd go for: I would probably expect the Tories to round up a couple more, on the back of pure anti-Labour feeling and if still in office, anti-Gordon Brown resentment. The Liberal Democrats will be keen to go for the 'Paddick' effect and stand well-known figures not from traditional Lib Dem territory - many Lib Dems and Brian Paddick himself feel a bit 'robbed' that their 'master-stroke' was over-shadowed by the Boris Johnson/Ken Livingstone duel. However, might see a squeeze and no gains/losses for the party - maybe even 1 loss. Labour won't suffer greatly - but stand by for a few culls, perhaps 3 or 4. UKIP will 'technically' lose 3 seats - but as these 3 will have all been held by Kilroy-Silk (who will lose or won't stand), Wise and Mote it won't be a great loss. There might be a change of personnel, but I reckon UKIP will have a breath of life for these elections. If they falter, a possible reduction of 2 though - if the bounce of 2004 cannot be repeated seeing the party return to pre-2004 days. The Greens will stabilise, no gains more than 1. No change for Plaid Cymru or the SNP - busy as usual. As for breakthroughs. Respect will put up the big gun of George Galloway (obviously scared that he'll soon be losing his Bow seat and its perks - hence his standing for the London Assembly), and might mobilise the joint socialist/islamic vote enough to secure their first MEP. It will be a close-run thing again for the BNP, who will fancy their chances - not sure where but will probably push for one in the capital (after the GLA results) or the north. The English Democrats will go for it too, doing well in South East and South West, but just not enough mileage for a seat. What do you think, big changes or a few amendents?