Originally Posted by Francis

I actually see that as a possible reason why the BNP and Respect won't do very well.

A significant proportion of the BNP's support has traditionally been protest voting, and whenever they've won seats it's lead to a strong fall back, as a significant number of their votes came from people who DIDN'T want them to get in, but wanted to send a message to the other parties and so, upon seeing them elected, cease voting for them.

Also, looking at the record of elected BNP councilors, in a lot of cases they've been decidedly poor, therefore if I was a gambling man I'd suggested that a good deal of the BNP's value is already in their price, and a slide back is quite possible, and seeing as they didn't get any seats last time that would mean a high chance of getting none this time.

The main hope for the BNP is for a rise in protest votes in other areas to maybe carry them through to one seat, however they are going to be handicapped by not receiving the same level of publicity as they did when Hodge made her statements, that assisted with the B&D results, and watching the political scene the opposition clearly has plenty of ammunition, in reserve, that they can use against the BNP (self inflicted as usual).

So they might get lucky, and grab a seat from some protest voting, but I'd say at present the chances are against it.

Also, don't forget that the last time around the BNP were riding high (they scored 808,200 votes in the Euro elections in 2004 too), since then they've slipped back to their previous standings at national level (192,746 votes at the 2005 General election).