Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpdavies
Before today, UKIP only ever won "as opposed to getting defections" 1 councilor in a go. Today they have won 4!
That's progress. Sure they are still way behind others, but combined with MP and Lords, this is all steps forward.
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True, but it is going to take something like the BNP have achieved to really start the ball rolling. Both the Greens and the BNP are a few years ahead of UKIP in terms of getting councillors.
UKIP gained 3 councillors this year, and lost one last year. These are not numbers to be particularly excited about. If UKIP gained 3 councillors every year for the next 20 years, they would still have less councillors than the Greens or the BNP have now (I think).
What is more interesting is the number of close results, and whether this provides an opportunity for a break through at some point. UKIP needs to be taking 10 new seats in every election to make itself newsworthy. If UKIP picked 20-30 target wards and threw everything into them for the next election, they might win ten.
We should also ask what could have made a difference this time around in those wards where UKIP came very close. Presumably the activists there were aware that they stood a decent chance, but what did the national/regional party do to assist? I haven't seen a single mention of an MEP campaigning locally for example. Could a couple of days of door knocking by each MEP have added an extra 50 votes or so in some of those key wards, and got 5 more people elected?
As you say though, the presence of an MP, two Lords and 9 MEPs keeps UKIP ahead in the national stakes, but the Greens and BNP are way ahead in local politics. Whether the top down or bottom up approach will be more successful in the next General Election remains to be seen.