Originally Posted by indigo

You're not "coming from a base". Everyone would like to think they're building on previous support, but the reality is that in any election, half the parties standing will see a decline in their votes. The total is still 100%. Everyone can't increase their percentage.

It's not like you're getting 1.5% for free, and then your work builds on that. For minor parties, with no entrenched voters, you're starting from 0 every time.

The 15% is irrelevant, because it's either a very small sample size, or was the product of focussed campaigning, which can't be repeated when many areas vote at the same time.

If you think you're going to get 3,4,5,6+ percent of the vote, you're in for a nasty shock.