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Old 29-04-2008, 10:26 AM   #24 (permalink)
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Exclamation The Hockey Stick is Debunked

The Hockey Stick has been thoroughly Debunked:

"Simulations with red noise do lead to hockey sticks. McIntyre and McKitrick’s criticism on the hockey stick from 1998 is entirely valid on this particular point." - Hans von Storch, Ph.D. Climate Statistics Specialist

What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About? (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, April 4, 2005)



Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (PDF) (National Academy of Sciences, 2006)
Quote:
Originally Posted by National Academy of Sciences
Even less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that "the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium" because the uncertainties inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual years and decades are larger than those for longer time periods [...]

Prior to about 1600, ...periods of medieval warmth are seen in a number of diverse records, including historical information from Europe and Asia; cave deposits; marine and lake sediments; and ice cores from Greenland, Ellesmere Island, Tibet, and the equatorial Andes. [...]

Using proxies sensitive to hydrologic variables (including moisture-sensitive trees...) to take advantage of observed correlations with surface temperature could lead to problems [...]

For tree ring chronologies, the process of removing biological trends from ringwidth data potentially obscures information on long-term changes in climate. [...]

Large-scale surface temperature reconstructions yield a generally consistent picture of temperature trends during the preceding millennium, including relatively warm conditions centered around A.D. 1000 (identified by some as the “Medieval Warm Period”) and a relatively cold period (or “Little Ice Age”) centered around 1700. The existence and extent of a Little Ice Age from roughly 1500 to 1850 is supported by a wide variety of evidence including ice cores, tree rings, borehole temperatures, glacier length records, and historical documents. Evidence for regional warmth during medieval times can be found in a diverse ...set of records including ice cores, tree rings, marine sediments, and historical sources from Europe and Asia
Von Storch, Zorita and Gonzalez-Raucen statement on the NAS Panel Report (Climate Audit, June 22, 2006)
Quote:
We share the assessment of the NRC committee that the evidence for unprecedented warming of a single decade or even a single year in times prior to 1500, or so, is stretching the scientific evidence too far. However, this was the key claim made in the contested 1998-nature and 1999-GRL-papers by Mann et al.

With respect to methods, the committee is showing reservations concerning the methodology of Mann et al.. The committee notes explicitly on pages 91 and 111 that the method has no validation (CE) skill significantly different from zero. In the past, however, it has always been claimed that the method has a significant nonzero validation skill. Methods without a validation skill are usually considered useless. [...]

Thus, the public perception that the hockeystick as truthfully describing the temperature history was definitely false.

We find it disappointing that the method of Mann et al. was not sufficiently described in the original publication, and thus not peer-reviewed prior to publication, and that no serious efforts were made to allow independent researchers to check the performance of the methods and of the data used.
Spin can’t hide the facts concerning the hockey stick (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick Ph.D. Economics, July 26, 2006)

Papers:
Ad Hoc Committee Report on the 'Hockey Stick' Global Climate Reconstruction (PDF) (Wegman Report, July 14th, 2006)
- Response of Dr. Edward Wegman to Questions Posed by the Honorable Mr. Bart Stupak in Connection with Testimony to the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations (PDF)
Presentation to the National Academy of Sciences Expert Panel, "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 1,000-2,000 Years." (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, March 2, 2006)
- Supplementary Presentations to the National Academy of Sciences Panel (PDF) (April 3, 2006)
Presentation to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, July 19, 2006)
Presentation to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, July 27, 2006)
Huybers’ and von Storch-Zorita Comments, and Our Replies (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, November 2005)
More on Hockey Sticks: the Case of Jones et al (1998) (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Nov 14, 2005)
The Mann et al. Northern Hemisphere "Hockey Stick" Climate Index: A Tale of Due Diligence (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, May 2, 2005)
Is Climate Really Changing Adnormally? (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, April 1, 2005)
Kyoto Protocol Based On Flawed Statistics - Proof That Mankind Causes Global Warming Is Refuted (PDF) (Natuurwetenschap & Techniek, The Netherlands, February 2005)
Backgrounder for McIntyre and McKitrick “Hockey Stick Project” (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, January 27 2005)
Breaking the “Hockey Stick” (PDF) (David R. Legates, Ph.D. Climatology, July 12, 2004)
The IPCC, the "Hockey Stick" Curve, and the Illusion of Experience (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, November 18, 2003)
Lessons & Limits of Climate History: Was the 20th Century Climate Unusual? (PDF) (Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Willie Soon, Ph.D., April 2003)
The 'Hockey Stick': A New Low in Climate Science (John L. Daly, B.Sc. Economics, November 12, 2000)

Peer-Reviewed Papers:
Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process: The "Hockey-Stick" Affair and Its Implications (PDF) (David Holland, Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 951-983, December 2007)
Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, February 2005)
- Reply to comment by von Storch and Zorita on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
- Reply to comment by Huybers on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, pp. 69-100, January 2005)
Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Number 6, pp. 751-771, November 2003)
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