Sober analysis suggests this will be an uphill struggle for UKIP to hold the seat, but I would not rule this out. 7.5% is a decent vote and there will no doubt be a vote for Spink based on his record and views. You will certainly poll over 20%.
Expect both the Tories and the BNP to put in considerable effort into preventing you winning the seat, and Labour will now treat it as a marginal as well, hoping to come through the middle by holding a 30% share of the vote, in case the UKIP and Tory vote splits evenly at around 28%.
In terms of timing in London, it is about perfect. I hope UKIP up their Assembly campaign and get news of their first MP out to the boroughs. There was a danger of some of this vote sliding towards the BNP, but I think if UKIP can raise their game between now and election day, they can still win a seat.
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