AB is perhaps kind in using the national 2.4% as a comparison. Yes the seats per vote rules have changed and 1 seat might reflect that but a fair comparison is % vote last time in LONDON versus % vote May.
Apart from local and macro issues, knowing BNP is the greatest threat to UKIP vote, UKIP has had over 4 years to build it's strategy and develop its case to the London voter as well as put why they dont need to vote BNP to get their concerns represented. If UKIP is humiliated by the BNP it will be because the public see BNP as a credible home for a protest vote to shock and force the political class to listen , whilst UKIP is seen as.................????? ( UKIP could still pull out of the bag something under wraps really clever and vote catching to parry )
Memories are 2005 when UKIP had no plan B when other parties wouldnt play the plan A UKIP ball.
It is difficult to see any substansive interest by the party in May local elections either in local government issue terms as a broadbased political party or using it as a vehicle to get whatever Lisbon or other macro messages it wants over ( eg a worthy intellectual LG manifesto but no hard hitting topical leaflet to down load and print on ANYTHING ).
Increasingly the impression is that UKIP is losing interest in being a high profile broadbased domestic issue party or even one trying to make an electoral impact other than branch initiatives. In failing to tackle Lisbon .. a main EU reason for it existing ,it sems to be retreating to a lager position of 2009 MEP elections with the hope in the meantime that leader appearances on Question Time is enough to keep voters on side. A result of this overall impression is a gradual drift away of activists.
I hope I am completely wrong of course and May will show some stunning stragegy from UKIP & good results. In some counties who have battled despite everything some good results should be obtained.
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