Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Smith
Anthony is right to do this assessment as UKIPs profile in the MSM is now so low that no paper can be bothered to give it the space for a rational appraisal.
The indicators on the state of UKIP do not look good. Membership in decline, polls at 2%, less than 12 councillors etc etc. Farage can of course avoid that debate with its members as only those prepared to tolerate him remain.
The assessments he cannot ignore are the May elections and next year's Euro elections, which will be the public tests of Farage's Leadership.
It starts this May, when the main comparison will be with the 2 seats won in the GLA in 2004. To win only one will be a setback for Farage. To win none would be a disaster for UKIP.
Next year the focus will be on the Euros and here Farage's "double the MEPs" is the right measure to assess him by. It looks more like that the outcome will not be to double the numbers but instead UKIP are heading for a halving of them. Farage may not even be an MEP anymore if the party's vote dips under 10%.
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I am afraid this, although perhaps true, does not deal with the reality that UKIP's primary purpose is to get Britain out of the EU, or at least cut political and economic ties - as the majority want.
IWAR have demonstrated through their mini referenda that there is significant concern about the Lisbon Treaty and that the majority do want a referendum and, if a referendum were held, the Treaty would be rejected.
IWAR have also proposed that, because of the Lib/Dems suggestion, the referendum should ask two questions:
1] Do you want the Lisbon Treat ratified?
2] Do you want Britain to stay in the EU?
On a platter, IWAR have served UKIP a golden opportunity to achieve its primary aim. IWAR are a cross party alliance and cannot put this option to the voters at the next GE unless they decide to form a political party themselves. Why has UKIP not seized this opportunity with both hands and declared that their primary policy for the next GE will be to offer a referendum in these terms?
Unfortunately, the explanation is obvious - once out of the EU or with an arrangement which suits the majority UKIP's role ceases. NF, the minor celebrity and 48th most influential person in Britain, returns to the shadows - his handsome salary package gone. According to Wikipedia, NF is 44 on Thursday - he has another 20 odd years before retirement. He is very unlikely to attain his lofty position in any other guise, so he needs Britain in the EU for UKIP and him to flourish - the battle to get out of the EU has to be long and extended, even if this means that it is left too late and we cannot get out - destined to be a mere province of a German dominated European super state.
Rest assured, any Ukipper who disputes this is either mentally challenged, holds power or gains materially through a flourishing UKIP or expects to in the future.
If you are a UKIP member who is in the party to change our relationship with the EU - resign, for by remaining a member you are helping to ensure we stay in by strengthening NF's and UKIP's ability to keep us in through failing to act decisively.
Go join one of the other well established national political parties who genuinely intend to take us out or change our relationship. Unfortunately your choices are limited. As far as I can see there are only two - the BNP and the Liberal Party [the old one].