Anthony is right to do this assessment as UKIPs profile in the MSM is now so low that no paper can be bothered to give it the space for a rational appraisal.
The indicators on the state of UKIP do not look good. Membership in decline, polls at 2%, less than 12 councillors etc etc. Farage can of course avoid that debate with its members as only those prepared to tolerate him remain.
The assessments he cannot ignore are the May elections and next year's Euro elections, which will be the public tests of Farage's Leadership.
It starts this May, when the main comparison will be with the 2 seats won in the GLA in 2004. To win only one will be a setback for Farage. To win none would be a disaster for UKIP.
Next year the focus will be on the Euros and here Farage's "double the MEPs" is the right measure to assess him by. It looks more like that the outcome will not be to double the numbers but instead UKIP are heading for a halving of them. Farage may not even be an MEP anymore if the party's vote dips under 10%.
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