Quote:
Originally Posted by eublues
The Lib Dems know that there is absolutely no chance of an in or out of the EU referendum being held in the foreseeable future - on the other hand what might just possibly trigger this?
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In answer to the above question (on what could trigger a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU):
Brown - in order to try to deflect criticism of him during the next General Election campaign that his party broke its promise to hold an EU Treaty referendum - might promise that he would hold an "in or out" referendum if Labour win the next General Election.
I am not seeing he will definitely do this (he may not) but if he did he would do so not just for the reason I give above but because he would hope to stunt potentially rising support for UKIP and other parties backing an EU Treaty referendum and he might hope to get some eurosceptic and anti-votes too.
If he then went on to win the next General Election (having promised an "in our out of the EU" referendum) he might then hold one but possibly only do so if various 'hurdles' were attached to it such as a vote for quitting the EU only being valid if voter turnout was over 60% (I believe this rule was used in the referendum on devolution in Scotland in the late 1970's - a referendum in which there was a narrow Yes to devolution vote but one which was officially not valid due to low turnout).