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Originally Posted by Raymond Finch
The Labour Party are dying on their backs here in the South East.
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I absolutely, totally 100% agree with your analysis and interpretation of the situation Raymond - Labour in the south (south-east, south-west; East Anglia and outer parts of 'Greater' London) is very vulnerable indeed to a professional and determined push by UKIP to take their (Labour's) current third place in many wards and constituencies in the semi-urban and rural south of England. I would estimate that pro-EU and pro-euro Labour are falling to bits in at least 200 constituencies and in another 50 can't fall to bits because they have no organisation and practically no members in those seats to lose in the first place. We know that the Labour membership nationally is down from 409, 000 in 1997 to 186, 000 now (according to figures leaked last year from Labour's National Executive Committee). The Conservatives have also lost members since pro-EU David Cameron became Conservative leader and the pro-euro Liberal Dims are down to about 76, 000 (or fewer) from the figure of 100, 000 they were smugly and foolishly boasting about only a few years ago.
On a related point, there are actually whole areas of the country where the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' have no organisation and hardly any members - this is the case in at least 500 constituencies across the UK and it offers UKIP enormous electoral possibilities (i.e. in filling the gap left by the understandable lack of support for the pro-EU Liberal Dims).
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Mr. Raymond Finch wrote: The Labour Party are dying on their backs here in the South East. We beat them in a local by-election in Winchester a few months ago when they got 1.5% of the vote. In Havant and Pompey they are in a terrible state and yet these should be some of their southern powerhouses.
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Good.
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Mr. Raymond Finch wrote: What UKIP need to do is start appealing to former Labour voters in the south-east rather than just the Tories (although we have a natural constituency there as well) and it is down to those on the ground to start working the wards. I honestly feel we can start replacing Labour in some of these constituencies. Particularly the ones like Portsmouth South that are now strongly LibDem.
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I also believe that UKIP can take Labour's current third place in many constituencies up and down the land and certainly in the semi-urban and rural south. The best example of this was in the Parliamentary By-Election at Bromley in Kent in the Summer of 2006 where UKIP (with Mr. Farage as candidate) pushed Labour into fourth place.
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Mr. Raymond Finch wrote: Labour's vote that transferred to them was originally a "stop the Tories, anti-war" vote. Now they would be looking for a new home as the LDs do not offer any real policies and Labour is seen as a busted flush.
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Exactly - denying the europhile Liberal 'Democrats' (LDs) the anti-Iraq 'war' protest vote achieves two things: it stops them holding on to many marginal constituencies at the next General Election (thus reducing the number of hard-line europhiles in the Commons) and, if UKIP can get those anti-Iraq 'war' protest votes instead, it potentially pushes UKIP up the ranking (i.e. lets UKIP move from fourth or fifth place to third place in some constituencies) also helping the wider pro-sovereignty movement.
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Mr. Raymond Finch wrote: ...they won't come to us, we must come to them.
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Very true Raymond - all Parliamentary seats where Labour is currently third must be put on the UKIP target list (as should all constituencies where the europhile Liberal Dims have an MP). The aim of UKIP should be to leaflet each and every voter in those constituencies and to inform all Labour and Liberal 'Democrat' voters (a large proportion of whom are eurosceptic or anti-EU according to opinion polls) that those parties both want to destroy our Pound and put us all under EU Government.
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Mr. Raymond Finch wrote:To be fair to the EDs in Pompey, the ones I have met have been nice guys who work hard for the vote and if any of them want to defect I would be happy to work with them to build a real alternative for the people of Hampshire.
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Another fair comment from you, Raymond: the English Democrats (EDs) have similar views to most in UKIP - both parties are for England and both want out of the EU. I have called before now (in some other threads in this forum) for the two parties to try to cooperate (as and where they can agree to do so).