Quote:
Originally Posted by rjt
The point about Brown being deprived of his majority rather than an outright defeat is a fair one due to the swing identified. This could bring about a very unstable situation.
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The electoral swing required by the Conservatives to get an overall majority of one in the House of Commons next time is larger than that achieved by the Conservative Party at any point in its history.
However, the swing needed is much less than that which Blair got in the opposite direction at the 1997 General Election.
It is not impossible for the Conservatives to get a very big swing (like Blair did in 1997). If it can happen in one direction, it can happen in the other.
When the electorate have had enough, they've had enough. This is the country whose electors voted Churchill out of office, after all.
If the British people can defeat Winston Churchill in a General Election just after he has won a World War I do not think that Gordon Brown would be at all wise in assuming that election defeat could never happen to him and the rabble around him.