Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony Smithee
Thirty to forty years is very little time in which to convert the world's economy to be based on something other than oil, especially given that we do not just use it for power generation or transportation fuel but also for plastics, drugs and many other things.
That's also assuming no growth of demand, which is a very unrealistic assumption indeed.
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I agree. It's of course very possible that new technology will be discovered, and new fields exploited, but with the sharp increase in demand from countries like China and India, I find it hard to believe that enough will be discovered to offset a sharp increase in prices. It seems to me that largely because of the suicidal desire to pack our countries as tightly as possible, taht the infrastructure of western countries has already been pushed to the limit; further increases in the price of oil could place a huge strain on the world economy, and perhaps collapse it. I think the denial on here over the matter is generally inspired by the libertarian capitalist idea that capitalism as a system is quite capable of dealing with any problems we might face, and is not based upon realism. Of course there is the possibility, and one of those who responded with a link seems to come from this perspective, that our elites are lying to us for their own ends. I have some sympathy with this view. But if we do have reason to be concerned, then the last thing we need to be doing is packing our countries as tightly as possible by immigration, since not only do we need a population at a size that can actually be fed without a reliance on oil, but also because history teaches us that when different ethnic groups have to compete over scarce resources, they will kill each for them. We are placing unsustainable demands on our water and land resources. We certainly need to rethink the suicidal policy - adopted to prevent global war - of being inter-dependent on other nations for our essential needs, such as food and energy. In short, the Lib/Lab/Con alliance are doing everything possible to make sure that Peak Oil, if true, leads to the deaths of as many people as possible.