WL, I appear to agree with you on much of what you say, especially concerning the conspiracy theories.
AS, If UKIP were to be elected then withdrawal, being the key party policy on the manifesto, would go ahead. Referenda are great if you get to choose the question. They are also great where governments are proceeding to change the constitution without putting it in their manifesto. Arguably, since Blair was committed to a referendum on the constitution before the last GE (IIRC), the decision by Brown to avoid a referendum is going back on a promise. In reality it is unlikely that UKIP will storm to power without having had a period of opposition of some sort since that would require a massive swing and moving from 0 MPs to 325 in one fell swoop. The issue of EU membership could be addressed by other parties who saw voters deserting them in the way that Labour is making mouth music about immigration (British jobs for British workers!!!) when their private polls show localised support for the BNP threatening a handful of their MPs (Stoke, Dagenham, Burnley etc). If UKIP picked up 20 or 30 seats at the next GE it would galvanise the big parties into looking at their policies. Note the cynicism with which Brown has been 'borrowing' Tory and LibDem and even BNP ideas in order to keep voters onside.
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When in Woking do as the Wokes do.
"I do not wish to form my opinions by thoughtlessly quoting others; I wish others to support their opinions by sensibly quoting me." Paul Wesson (Aardvark) 13th April 2008
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