The eurosceptical Liberal Party has just had a stroke of luck in its best constituency, Liverpool West Derby.
Amazingly for a party only about a tenth of the size of UKIP, the Liberals managed to come second in that seat in the general elections of 1997 and 2001, and third in 2005. The Liberals' strength there is based on the Tuebrook ward: they hold all three of the ward's seats on Liverpool City Council.
In each of those three general elections, the seat was won by old Labour's Robert "Bob" Wareing, with a majority so vast that it seemed certain that however impressive their efforts, the Liberals could never hope to take the seat.
However, on 16th Sept, Wareing was defeated in a reselection poll by a Nu-Labour contender. Wareing has promptly left the Labour Party, with maximum rancour, and as of the last two weeks now sits as an Independent Labour MP. Better still, he has vowed to fight the next election as an Independent candidate. As the sitting MP, with some local following, he might do rather well:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/e...de/6999733.stm
By splitting the massive Labour vote in Liverpool West Derby, Wareing may do the unthinkable - turn it from a rock-solid Labour stronghold into a genuine four-way marginal (Labour/Ind Labour/LibDem/Liberal).
It is still a very long shot, but I think this is possibly the best chance that any eurosceptical party has of actually entering parliament at the next election. I hope that UKIP Liverpool might consider standing down their candidate in Liverpool West Derby and throwing their campaigning might behind the Liberals' candidate, Steve Radford. It could make all the difference!
Past general election results: Liverpool West Derby
(courtesy of Wikipedia)
General Election 2005: Liverpool West Derby
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Robert Wareing 19,140 62.83 -3.4
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 3,915 12.85 +2.0
Liberal Steve Radford 3,606 11.84 -3.1
Conservative Peter Garrett 2,567 8.43 +0.4
Socialist Labour Kai Anderson 698 2.3 +2.3
UK Independence Peter Baden 538 1.8 +1.8
Majority 15225 50.0 -1.3
Turnout 30464 47.16 +1.7
Labour hold Swing -2.7
General Election 2001: Liverpool West Derby
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Robert Wareing 20,454 66.2
Liberal Steve Radford 4,601 14.9
Liberal Democrat Patrick Moloney 3,366 10.9
Conservative William Clare 2,486 8.0
Majority 15,853 51.3
Turnout 30,907
General Election 1997: Liverpool West Derby
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Robert Wareing 30,002 71.2
Liberal Steve Radford 4,037 9.6
Liberal Democrat A Hines 3,805 9.0
Conservative N Morgan 3,656 8.7
Referendum Party P Forest 657 1.6
Majority 25,965 61.6
Turnout 61.3
Labour hold Swing