Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher
Britannist wrote:
UKIP is still taking votes from Labour in the London area (there were huge swings to UKIP from Labour in the capital in the 2004 EU and London Assembly elections).
Mr. Anthony Butcher asked:
Will that continue though as UKIP becomes more and more associated with the Tories and more associated with "right wing" politics? It is something of a stigma with Labour voters.
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I think that the UKIP immigration policy (stop all immmigration for five years) will appeal to Labour voters - many of whom live in areas which have experienced a large influx.
For instance, in the UKIP target number one seat - Boston/Skegness (featured in the Dispatches programme on Channel Four about immigration earlier this week) there are about 15, 000 people (mostly) from Portugal/Poland living in the constituency (which has a population of about 60, 000).
UKIP performed better in Boston/Skegness than in any other constituency in the country at the last General Election - and I am sure the massive EU influx into the Boston/Skegness area was very much one of the reasons why people voted UKIP there in large numbers.
There is no doubt at all that many Labour voters switched to UKIP in in Boston/Skegness (a marginal seat where the Conservatives and Labour are the two main parties) at the last General Election and I am sure such electors will agree with the UKIP policy on immigration (to stop it completely for five years).
I would also expect the UKIP immigration policy to appeal to many Labour voters in London - which has taken the majority of the eastern european influx into the UK.
As I wrote in another thread, UKIP could have a greater influence on the result of the next General Election than on the last - even if it got fewer votes. The important factor is where it gets the votes from and in what seats. Taking 2000 votes from the Conservatives in a 'safe' Conservative seat would be less useful to UKIP than it gaining 500 votes from Labour supporters in a constituency with a very pro-EU Labour MP who had a majority last time of under 500 (i.e. Harlow - where pro-EU Minister 'Bill' Rammell is the MP with a majority of under 100 votes - is a good example).