Originally Posted by Adrian Davies

Under FPTP it will be very difficult for UKIP or the BNP (let alone the EDs) to come anywhere near winning a seat at Westminster. The BNP probably achieves a better concentration of its votes, but is still nowhere near winning a seat. UKIPpers shouldn't flatter their party's prospects by looking at bye-elections, which are an occasion for protest. Even in Devon & Cornwall, UKIP is nowhere near a breakthrough. My prediction is that none of the above will win a single seat at the next general election. The BNP might just take second place in a handful of seats. UKIP will poll reasonably well in its best areas, but will not reach second place (and probably not third place) anywhere. Sad but true.