Quote:
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Originally Posted by Independent UKIP
It all depends on whether FPTP is maintained & if not what system succeeds it. Under FPTP I'd say Green & if I'm correct probably in this seat:
Brighton Pavilion
David Lepper Labour 15,427 35.4 -13.3
Mike Weatherley Conservative 10,397 23.9 -1.2
Keith Taylor Green 9,571 22.0 +12.7
Hazel Thorpe Liberal Democrat 7,171 16.5 +3.4
Kimberley Crisp-Comotto UK Independence Party 508 1.2 +0.3
Tony Greenstein Alliance for Green Socialism 188 0.4 +0.4
Ian Fyvie Socialist Labour Party 152 0.3 -1.1
Christopher Rooke Independent 122 0.3 +0.3
Keith Jago Independent 42 0.1 +0.1
Possible that Labour support will fall further, tories maintain their support and Lib Dems transfer to the Greens to get Labour out & ensure tories don't win. Soc Lab & AGS voters would also probably need to vote Green for them to win.
Edit: Britannist you submitted your post whilst I was writing/researching mine. We're thinking in the same direction.  |
Independent UKIP: What an amazing coincidence
- and we're in the same city too. It must be the London air! 8)
I admire your electoral knowledge 8) and your interest in psephology (the study of trends in elections and voting for anyone who is not totally familiar with that word!).
Regarding the Pavilion result which you kindly posted in detail - obviously some of the Green Party vote were anti-Iraq 'war' protest votes. What the Green Party should be doing now (from there point of view) is trying to get voters to abandon the europhile Liberal Dims and vote Green instead (at the next General Election).
If the Green Party can hold on to most of the voters who only backed them because they were against the Iraq 'war' then they could turn Brighton Pavilion into a three-way marginal.
And that helps UKIP - because it becomes much easier to win as UKIP could do so on about 29% of the vote if the votes for the other parties stack up 'in the right way'.
Of course UKIP would need to substantially increase its vote in the constituency. Which is why it needs to target seats such as Pavilion which are either three-way marginals or which have show the likelihood of becoming a three-way marginal.
UKIP's best chance of winning a constituency is through targeting seats where its support is strong. And the south-coast of England (which includes the Pavilion seat) shows potential for UKIP.
If UKIP is to win a seat in the Commons - it's best chance will probably come in a three-way marginal. And Brighton Pavilion is pretty close to becoming a three-way marginal if the Greens maintain their strength in that seat.