Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jp
Quote:
Another aspect of YouGov's data should worry Conservatives especially and may even offer Labour supporters a little comfort. According to YouGov, Labour support among the electorate has fallen by five percentage points since the 2005 election and Liberal Democrat support has also fallen by five points — a combined loss of 10 percentage points.
On the face of it, the Tories should have gained most of those 10 points. But they have not done so.
As the figures in the chart indicate, the Conservatives have gained five of them but the various minor parties have gained the other five. The opposition to the Labour Government is thus fragmenting instead of consolidating.
No fewer than 13 per cent of YouGov's respondents say that they would vote for some party other than one of the main three at an early general election. Three per cent would back either the SNP or Plaid Cymru, four per cent Ukip, three per cent the BNP and two per cent the Greens.
These assorted small parties have, between them, had the support of 10 per cent or more of the electorate since the spring of this year.
The unpopularity of the Government is clearly not being translated in any straightforward way into support for the official Opposition. It is the unofficial opposition that is gaining in strength.
|
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...nlabour125.xml |
Some of the increase of support for UKIP may be due to some eurosceptic and anti-EU Conservative voting people getting fed up with David Cameron. If it's true that the Conservative Party membership has fallen then some of those that have quit the Conservatives might sign up as UKIP members.
The figure of 4% represents about one in every 22 voters across the UK. Within England, UKIP is probably on about a 6% share and could reach 12% across the UK if it went for the 'weak' Liberal 'Democrat' vote - 18% in the latest poll (published yesterday).
As someone said years ago - support for the europhile Liberal Dims is a mile wide but only an inch deep. It would be less than a a quarter of an inch deep if UKIP got the message through to those that vote for the Liberal Dims that it is a pro-euro party which is weak on fighting drugs and very weak on fighting crime. Most people who vote Liberal 'Democrat' are not committed to that party - it is just a protest vote. A study last year found that if people thought the Fiberal Dims were going to win a General Election, voters would desert it in droves.
UKIP beat the pro-EU Liberal Dims in the EU election of 2004 (in votes received) and should aim to to replace them as the 'third' party in the UK in General Elections.