Wouldn't 29% look good and bad at the same time, Britannist! It is possible to win seats like this under our system. When one was either a little Liberal or a little Con-serva-tive, it was OK. Now I do wonder. :roll:
This
could be the result (assuming Nigel Farage keeps a straight furrow!)
1. UKIP 26%
2. Cons 24%
3. LibDems 19%
4. Labour 16%
5. Green 5%
6. EDP 4%
7. NF 3%
8 others 3%
This all assumes that UKIP is seen as a possible winner! :wink: If not, either the voters will stick with the Tories, go to LibeDems or split all over the place!
However, I think Adrian Davies has a more reasoned answer!!
Quote:
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In my view as a non-member of UKIP, you will have just cause to celebrate if you achieve 15% of the vote. 10% of the vote in a safe Tory seat at a time when frankly the EU is not a major issue to most people (whether it ought to be is a different question) would be respectable. Much less (let alone failing to save the deposit) would be poor, given the high profile candidate selected, and the resources put into the campaign.
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This is because Farage will, I fear, keep banging on about Europe, when it is the
local opinion towards present/current national issues that win by-elections! :!: