According to Antony Butcher's posting on the 10th May last year, UKIP fell from 16% at the Euro vote, to just 2.38% average at the GE.
This suggests that the ratio between each vote was 1:7. The UKIP vote at Bromley was slightly higher than the average. UKIP was able to muster votes of around 150-200% higher during two by-elections of Hartlepool and Stafforshire South in each case roughly two and a half to three times a previous GE result. One of those, followed on the back of the best ever UKIP vote during the Euro 2004 poll when UKIP coverage was the best the party had ever had. The other followed after general election results that Antony Butcher described as "...a disaster".
Even with Nigel Farage, I really believe that UKIP will do no better than around 2-3 times that of the last GE result in Bromley. So expect a vote of no more than 6-9%, probably a fourth place at best.
Remember, we are dealing with Tory voters here, they will not want to scupper Conservative Party prospects at a future GE. They probably want Blair out of government MORE than they want Britain out of the EU.
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