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We shouldn't be too surprised that Bush has been re-elected despite Iraq. Exactly the same thing is due to happen here in a few months.
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I admit this looks highly likely at the moment, but let's not give up before the election campaign has even begun. Blair is stoppable. He is unpopular and widely distrusted. Whether or not he gets re-elected depends upon the voters and, before that, on the actions and decisions of all the opposition parties.